Here’s who Kansas Jayhawks should want to play (and avoid) in NCAA Tournament bracket
Kansas had an impressive run through the Big 12 Tournament following its 74-65 victory over Texas Tech in the championship game, but we all know what’s next.
That win will have a short shelf life. What matters most is what comes next.
Take off the recency-bias glasses, and here’s the reality with KU: It’s probably about the fifth-to-eighth “best” team nationally based on possession-based advanced rankings, which is amid a group of about 10 programs behind Gonzaga that have to feel decent about their chances to make a Final Four.
A favorable draw, though, could make a significant difference.
With Selection Sunday’s official announcement looming, let’s take a look at what teams KU should want in its bracket — and the ones it would rather avoid.
I’ve consulted BracketMatrix for this exercise for approximate team seeding while also assuming the Jayhawks will be awarded a No. 1 seed.
16 seeds
KU should want ...
• Texas A&M Corpus Christi: The Southland champion seems ticketed for a Tuesday play-in game, but KU would most prefer this team. The Islanders are floating in the mid-200s of Ken Pomeroy’s advanced rankings, meaning KU would likely be a 20-ish point favorite ... and could almost sleepwalk its way to the second round.
KU should want to avoid ...
• Georgia State: Bracketologists can’t decide whether the Panthers should be on the 15 or 16 line, but it wouldn’t be ideal if the Jayhawks happened to draw them. Georgia State has won 10 straight in the Sun Belt, and it’s done that while experiencing some horrific luck when it comes to opponent three-point shooting. ShotQuality’s website has Georgia State as the 93rd-best team nationally — around teams like Wichita State and BYU — so KU’s chance to be on 1-16 upset watch would increase dramatically if this were the opener.
8/9 seed
KU should want ...
• Marquette or Creighton: Both teams have had nice moments this season, but the underlying numbers indicate each will be overseeded if it ends up in this 8-9 range. First-year coach Shaka Smart has done a solid job with Marquette, but his team has significant deficiencies on the glass and is likely to be exploited there. Meanwhile, this is Creighton’s worst offensive efficiency team in 25 seasons — something one wouldn’t expect from a Greg McDermott-coached squad.
KU should want to avoid ...
• San Diego State: If you’re worried about how KU might fare against a super-athletic team — think USC last season or Kentucky this season — then San Diego State is the most critical team to avoid. The Aztecs struggle to score — KenPom has their offense ranked 155th, while ShotQuality has it 228th — but there is no denying that they are elite defensively, with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Mark Zeigler describing them as “long, athletic and, most importantly, experienced in the sophisticated schemes and expectations of SDSU’s defensive culture.” San Diego State gets after opponents with steals, blocks and stingy two-point defense, and that makes it the type of lineup KU would rather avoid before the NCAA’s second weekend.
4/5 seed
KU should want ...
• Providence: The Friars deserve credit for stacking up an impressive résumé. And Ed Cooley earned his Big East coach of the year honor while going 17-2 in games decided by 10 or less. Still, history is clear on this: Close-game success is more luck than skill, and teams skating by like Providence have a massive gap between what they’ve accomplished and how good they are. The Friars not only would be a significant Vegas underdog if they faced the Jayhawks, and they also have a greater chance than other 4/5s of getting beaten in the first two rounds. If any 1 seed gets Providence as its 4 will be getting a substantial advantage.
KU should want to avoid ...
• Houston: The Cougars have been a bit of a mercurial team, but research shows us this: It’s hard not to be an elite team when you win by the types of margins that Kelvin Sampson’s team has at times this season. Houston, for example, defeated Bryant 111-44, East Carolina 79-36 and Temple 84-46. There likely will be some questions about the Cougars because of their conference, but they made the Final Four last year. Meanwhile, advanced rankings love them, with most having them above the Jayhawks. This is probably the worst draw that KU could get on any of these seed lines; a KU-Houston matchup would be close to a Vegas pick ‘em, and needless to say, that’s not the type of roadblock any 1 seed wants in the Sweet 16.
2/3 seed
KU should want ...
• Auburn or Wisconsin: Much like Providence, Auburn and Wisconsin’s close-margin success and accumulation of résumé-building victories have masked some under-the-hood statistical flaws. Auburn struggles in particular from three-point range, while Wisconsin’s lack of shooting and offensive rebounding has left it barely holding on to a top-50 KenPom offense. There are no easy games once a team gets to the Elite Eight, but if the Jayhawks drew either of these teams, they’d be the favorite in their region to advance to the Final Four.
KU should want to avoid ...
• Kentucky: The Wildcats have an argument for the 1 line, but if they become a 2 ... it’s not likely that any top seed will be happy with that pairing. Kentucky has wavered between 2 and 3 overall in KenPom most of the last month — that’s a good team — and not only that, it could face KU with a bit of a psychological edge after overwhelming the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse in late January. KU coach Bill Self talked afterward about his team struggling with Kentucky’s athleticism, and potential national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe would again provide a significant matchup challenge. KU-Kentucky would be fantastic television for college basketball fans ... but not as much fun for Self and KU, which would potentially be 1-2-point underdogs if that game took place on the Elite Eight’s neutral floor.
This story was originally published March 13, 2022 at 3:00 AM with the headline "Here’s who Kansas Jayhawks should want to play (and avoid) in NCAA Tournament bracket."
