Five Players I'm Drafting Earlier Than Everyone Else This Season

I am drafting five players earlier than everyone else this season, and every single pick has a reason behind it. This is not a hunch. This is not a name I just happen to like. Each player on this list got a real trade or a real role change this offseason, and that change moved them up my board. The fantasy market has not caught up yet. In this piece, I will walk you through the exact trade, the number that backs it up, and why I think the price is still too low. Let's start with pick one.

Pick 1: Darius Garland

Darius Garland now owns the point guard job in Los Angeles, and nobody on the roster is fighting him for it. In late June, the Clippers traded Kawhi Leonard to the Toronto Raptors for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and a stack of future picks, although that trade is now on hold as of the time of filing this bulletin. Leonard was the ball-dominant wing who could take the offense out of Garland's hands whenever he wanted. That player seems to be heading out of the door now.

Garland himself arrived in Los Angeles back in February, in the trade that sent James Harden to Cleveland. His run with the Clippers was short and rough around the edges. A toe injury delayed his debut, and he did not suit up for LA until March. Even so, he still ran the offense at a usage rate near 30 percent whenever he did play, and that was with Leonard still soaking up a big share of the shots.

I think Garland's current ADP is stuck in the past. It reflects a hurt player squeezed into a crowded backcourt last season, not a healthy lead guard walking into a full training camp as the clear No. 1 option. That gap between perception and reality is exactly why I am drafting him early.

Pick 2: Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware just left the most crowded frontcourt in basketball for one of the most wide open. In Miami, he spent two seasons stuck behind Bam Adebayo, never topping 23 minutes a game despite flashing real talent. That changed on June 22, when the Bucks sent Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Heat in a deal that brought back Ware, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, and a pile of future picks. Milwaukee is rebuilding now, and Myles Turner, the presumed starting center, is already being floated in trade talks. That leaves a real runway open at center for Ware.

The tools are already there. Last season, in only 22.1 minutes a game, Ware averaged 9.0 rebounds and 1.1 blocks a night across 77 games. Stretch that out to a full starter's workload and his per-36-minute numbers jump to roughly 18 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks. Those are not backup numbers. Those are starting center numbers.

I am not treating Ware as a deep-league flier. I see a top-30 center on a team that needs him to play heavy minutes right away, and I will defend that ranking against anyone drafting him after pick 100.

Pick 3: Scottie Barnes

Kawhi Leonard's arrival should make Scottie Barnes better, not smaller. This is not a bet that Barnes suddenly becomes Toronto's top scorer. It is simpler than that. Leonard draws the tougher matchup and the extra defender every single night. That means more driving lanes for Barnes and more open catch-and-shoot looks instead of contested ones. Last season Barnes had to create almost everything himself. Now he shares that load with a former Finals MVP who forces defenses to pick their poison.

Here is where I think the market got it wrong. When this trade broke, analysts quickly marked down RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, since their touches clearly shrink with a ball-dominant scorer in the building. Fair enough. But most of that same coverage treated Barnes as flat, or even slightly down, using the same logic. I do not buy it. Barnes was Toronto's engine on a team that had no other real threat. Adding Leonard raises his efficiency without taking away his all-around numbers. That gap between how the market priced Barrett and Quickley versus how it priced Barnes is exactly why I am drafting him higher.

Pick 4: Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija remains Portland's clear number one offensive option, and that has not changed even after the Blazers traded for Ja Morant this summer. Portland sent Jerami Grant and Kris Murray to Memphis for Morant, adding him to a backcourt that already includes Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe. That sounds crowded, and it is. But Avdija just made his first All-Star team by running Portland's offense as a forward, not a guard, and none of the new bodies fight him for that specific role.

I know the instinct here. A team adds a two-time All-Star point guard, and everyone assumes the ball moves away from the incumbent. I am not doing that with Avdija. His usage last season came from attacking the basket and initiating offense as a big wing, a job none of Portland's crowded guards can replace. If anything, adding another ball handler in Morant should cut down Avdija's turnovers, since he no longer has to do it all himself. If his ADP has slipped at all because of this trade, I see that dip as free value, not a red flag.

Pick 5: Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard gains real, uncontested opportunity now that Jaylen Brown is gone. In one of the offseason's stranger moves, the Celtics traded Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George and draft picks. Brown had carried a huge share of Boston's shots and touches for a decade. That usage does not disappear. It gets redistributed, and Pritchard is first in line. He already won Sixth Man of the Year two seasons ago and followed it with a career year last season at 17 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.0 rebounds a game.

I want to be honest about what this pick is. This is not a first-round bet. Pritchard is a middle-to-late round value play in a punt build, not a star. But I expect him to win me two categories specifically: three-pointers and assists. He has always been one of the league's best knockdown shooters from deep, and with Brown's touches now open, his passing role should grow the same way reports suggest, drawing comparisons to Jalen Brunson's jump once he got full control of an offense. That is a specific, repeatable strength, not a vague hope, and it is why he rounds out my list.

For The Common Good

Five picks, one common thing about them. Garland, Ware, Barnes, Avdija, and Pritchard are not hunches. Each one got a real, traceable role change from an actual trade this offseason, not a vague hope that a coach notices them in November. That is the whole premise of this piece, and it is why I am drafting all five earlier than their current price.

If these picks miss, I will own it. That is what separates a conviction piece from a generic sleeper list. For draft prep that keeps up with every roster change this offseason, keep checking Athlon's ongoing 2026-27 fantasy basketball draft coverage.

Questions About Undervalued Players for 2026-27 Season, Answered

Which fantasy basketball players are undervalued heading into 2026-27?

Darius Garland, Kel'el Ware, Scottie Barnes, Deni Avdija, and Payton Pritchard stand out because each benefits from a specific offseason role change. Rather than relying on speculative upside, each player is positioned to see increased opportunity or improved efficiency based on roster moves that have not yet been fully reflected in current draft prices.

Why is Darius Garland worth drafting ahead of his ADP?

Garland enters the season as the Clippers' clear lead guard after the offseason changes to the roster. His previous ADP reflects an injury-shortened stretch and a more crowded offensive hierarchy, while his current situation offers a full offseason to establish himself as the primary playmaker.

Is Kel'el Ware a good fantasy basketball breakout candidate for 2026-27?

Yes. Ware moves from a crowded frontcourt into a rebuilding Milwaukee roster where there is a realistic path to major minutes. His production in limited playing time last season and his strong per-36-minute numbers suggest he could deliver starting-caliber fantasy value if his workload increases.

Does the Ja Morant trade hurt Deni Avdija's fantasy value?

Not necessarily. Avdija's offensive role comes from operating as a playmaking forward rather than competing with Portland's guards. The addition of Morant may actually reduce some of Avdija's ball-handling burden while allowing him to remain the team's primary offensive option in his position.

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This story was originally published July 11, 2026 at 10:50 AM.