England Prediction Market vs Norway Strong at Kalshi
The British are coming, and the Vikings are rowing as England vs. Norway highlights the World Cup quarterfinals on Saturday. Kalshi backs England but respects Norway to keep it close.
England is a 64% favorite to advance on Kalshi's World Cup market, while Norway has a 73% chance to cover +1.5 on the goal spread.
England vs. Norway
- To Advance: England (64%) vs. Norway (36%)
- Reg. Moneyline: England (52%) vs. Norway (23%), Draw (27%)
- Reg. Spread: England -1.5 (28%)
- Reg. Total: 2.5
Before trading on this game, note that all regulation lines count towards the first 90 minutes and any stoppage time, and do not include any overtime play or penalty shots.
Looking at the prices to advance, placing a $10 trade profits $5.01 on England and $16.58 Norway.
Efficiency vs. Volume
The numbers say this is tighter than many expect. Both England and Norway rank in the top-5 in goals scored. Norway edges with 12, while England has 11.
To this point, Norway has relied on efficiency, while England has relied on shot volume. As a team, Norway has taken 52 shots with 26 being on goal at a 23% success rate and outperforming its expected efficiency by 1.32x.
England has fired 80 shots (32 on target) at a 14% rate and is playing just 1.04x its expected efficiency. Despite the volume, England leads expected goals by +1.52.
Given the explosiveness on both sides, and Norway's efficiency, Kalshi's prices are in line in favoring Norway to cover +1.5 and the over 2.5 goal mark.
Kane vs. Haaland goal market
All eyes are on Harry Kane vs. Erling Haaland. Both rank among the World Cup's top-5 scorers.
Haaland leads Kane with seven goals. Alone, he's responsible for 18 shots with 12 being on target. He's scored in all four games he appeared in, scoring a brace in three of them, including the Round of 16 against Brazil, and a solo goal against the Ivory Coast in the Round of 32.
Kane has totaled six goals to this point on 19 shots with 10 on goal. He's scored in all but one of five matches. He failed to score in the 0-0 vs. Ghana in the group stage. He braced against Congo DR in the Round of 32 and scored a solo goal against Mexico in the Round of 16.
Anytime Goal market
- Harry Kane 50%
- Erling Haaland 47%
England and Norway kick off at 5 p.m EST from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on FOX.
Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonusafter making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.
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Today's best reads
- England Receive Timely Injury Boost After Receiving Warning From Norway Boss
- Norway vs. England Opening Odds for World Cup Quarterfinals (England Favored to Advance)
- England Predicted Lineup vs. Norway: World Cup Quarterfinal
- Norway vs. England-World Cup: Preview, Predictions and Lineups
- Norway vs. England Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Quarterfinals
This article was originally published on www.si.com as England Prediction Market vs Norway Strong at Kalshi.
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This story was originally published July 11, 2026 at 7:00 AM.