How Likely Is the USA to Advance in the World Cup After Beating Paraguay?

On Friday, the U.S. Men’s National Team kicked off the World Cup in Los Angeles in stunning fashion with a dominant 4-1 win over Paraguay.

With two games remaining in the group, how likely are the Americans now to advance into the knockout rounds?

While prior, you had to be in the two top spots of your initial group to make it into the single-elimination side of the tournament, that has all changed with the addition of 16 more teams in the 2026 edition.

Now, the best-placing third place teams in each group will now also make it through into the knockout phase, which has dramatically changed how many points a team might need to survive the opening three weeks of the tournament.

More news: Stars, Stripes, and Statements: USA Claims #1 in World Cup Power Rankings

Per Fusion Sim, which simulated 10,000 versions of the current standings at the World Cup on Sunday, the United States with their three points and +3 goal differential have a 93.9% chance of making it out of the group. The U.S. themselves, which can still add on top of that mark with games against Australia and Turkey, have a 96% of making it to the Round of 32 following their big win over the South American challenger.

Realistically for the USMNT, a single point in one of their final two contests should be enough to put them through and possibly send them to the next round as at least the second seed. If they do come out in second in Group D, their most likely opponent in the Round of 32 would be either Egypt or Iran.

But after that strong debut, the U.S. are aiming for the top spot in Group D, which would put them in even a stronger position to make a deep run in the tournament. A first place in Group D would have them face a team that finished third in their group, most frequently Group B, which currently holds four teams who all drew in the first round: Canada, Qatar, Switzerland, and Bosnia & Herzegovina.

The biggest difference between finishing first and second would be the opponent in the Round of 16 if they make it there. In the world where they finish second and go through into the second knockout round, their most likely opponent would be the reigning champions Argentina.

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This story was originally published June 14, 2026 at 8:14 PM.