The U.S. likely won't contend at FIFA Men's World Cup. Here's why

In a perfect world - one where the United States men's national team (USMNT) builds some decent momentum, shows improvement as the tournament continues, the bracket breaks their way and they get some luck - Doug McIntyre thinks the U.S. might reach the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

"To get any further than that," McIntyre, a Fox Sports reporter who has covered American soccer since 2002, said, "everything would have to go right. They'd have to play exceptionally well and get a little bit of luck as well. But realistically, if they reach the quarterfinals, they can probably consider that a success."

Quarterfinals and a top-eight finish are far from what United States sports fans normally consider an accomplishment.

Team USA placed second at the 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics with 33 total medals including 12 golds. Its 126 total medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics and 40 gold medals ranked first in both categories. During the past decade, the United States has claimed titles at the men's and women's FIBA Basketball World Cup, the FIFA Women's World Cup, the World Baseball Classic and the International Ice Hockey World Championships.

But the U.S. remains as much of a longshot for the 2026 World Cup - where it is a joint host with Mexico and Canada - as it has been for most of its history. The U.S. is No. 16 in the FIFA men's world rankings, despite surging interest in the sport in America, especially among younger audiences.

NBC paid the English Premier League a reported $2.7 billion for its exclusive American broadcasting rights in 2022. U.S. Youth Soccer registers more than 2.5 million players annually, while U.S. Club Soccer has an additional 700,000 players according to a statement made by Ross Paule, the organization's technical director and head of talent identification and player development, in 2025.

So how did the USMNT get here, and why have they struggled to break into the sport's elite top tier?

An expanded field

In 1930, the USMNT was one of 13 teams to travel to Montevideo, Uruguay, to participate in the first officially recognized FIFA World Cup. It achieved a third-place finish, boasting a better goal differential than fourth-place Yugoslavia despite losing to eventual champions Uruguay 6-1 in the semifinals.

Nearly a century later, the USMNT's performance at the 1930 World Cup - a tournament that included no teams from Asia or Africa, and had limited interest in Europe - remains the United States' best showing in the world's premier soccer competition to date.

Since 1990, the United States has qualified for eight World Cups. The USMNT has advanced past the group stage four times. They've won exactly one knockout game, a 2-0 win against archrival Mexico during the 2002 World Cup to reach the quarterfinals. McIntyre noted it was a fortuitous matchup for the United States, which knew Mexico's playing style well after playing them so many times in CONCACAF competitions.

Even returning to the quarterfinals in 2026 will be a daunting challenge. First, the United States has to escape Group D, one that includes Turkey, Paraguay and Australia. Turkey, boasting stars such as Inter Milan midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Real Madrid's Arda Güler, defeated the United States 2-1 in a friendly just a year ago, though the USMNT defeated Paraguay and Australia 2-1 in exhibitions in 2025, too.

Assuming the United States can navigate its group effectively, it will have to win two games to reach the quarterfinals instead of just one like it did in 2002.

That's because the 2026 World Cup is going to be the largest in the competition's history. Since 1998, the World Cup has been a 32-team tournament, with 16 countries advancing to the knockout stage after the round-robin group stage.

This will be the first 48-team edition of the World Cup, meaning the United States will have to navigate a Round-of-32 game and a Round-of-16 game to reach the top eight. Where the USMNT finishes in the group - winners and runners-up automatically advance to the knockout stage, along with the eight best third-place teams - will determine who is in its path to simply advance to the Round of 16.

"The level of competition is so fierce," McIntyre said, "it won't be easy for the U.S. team to make a run. But if they get a little momentum and get better as the tournament goes on, I think it's possible they can reach the quarterfinals."

Finding top-end talent

The United States has certainly produced more high-level talent in recent years. Of the 26 players called up by coach Mauricio Pochettino, 17 currently play in Europe, still the hub of the highest level of men's club soccer. A dozen spent the past season in one of the continent's top-five leagues.

Few have been able to establish themselves with the best clubs at the highest levels.

Midfielder Weston McKennie has carved out a nice role for himself at Italian giant Juventus in the middle of the Turin-based club's six-year league title drought. Winger Christian Pulisic, similarly, arrived at AC Milan during a time where the Milanese club has struggled to reach its trophy-winning standards. Juventus and AC Milan failed to qualify for the UEFA Champions League for next season.

McIntyre points out that some of this stems from the United States' relatively recent investment in soccer infrastructure.

MLS, the top division of men's soccer in the United States, didn't even exist when the country hosted the World Cup in 1994. And MLS teams didn't start establishing training academies to develop young talent until the mid 2000s. McKennie, for example, made his name at FC Dallas' academy before moving to Europe.

European clubs, in comparison, had youth training pathways in place for decades. Barcelona founded its famed La Masia academy in 1979. Teams such as Manchester United and Ajax in Amsterdam have trained youth teams for nearly a century.

Pulisic notably pioneered a new development path in 2015 when he joined German club Borussia Dortmund's academy at 16 years old instead of continuing with American youth soccer. But it's a path limited to those who can attain a European passport because of FIFA's strict minor trafficking laws.

But even if every MLS team builds a well-run academy, it's no guarantee the United States will be able to develop all of its talent. The league has only 30 teams, leaving vast parts of the country without easy access to an MLS academy. USMNT defender Chris Richards moved nine hours away from his hometown of Hoover, Ala., to Texas when he was 16 to join FC Dallas' academy.

America's size may have a part to play in the country's struggles to find and develop top-end soccer talent. Of the top 10 most populous countries in the world, only the United States and Brazil qualified for the largest World Cup in history.

China hasn't participated in a World Cup since 2002. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have never appeared in the tournament. Indonesia has played once, in 1938. Russia is banned from partaking in the tournament because of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Instead of academies, soccer in America has relied on a club approach similar to AAU basketball or travel baseball. The pay-to-play system, where clubs charge players to participate.

Doug Andreassen, a former president of Washington Youth Soccer, estimated select-level players - classified as middle level of talent in the state - are paying around $7,000 per year to play club soccer in Washington. Premier-level players, the highest level, can pay anywhere north of $20,000 per year, Andreassen said, depending on whether they travel internationally.

There are severe consequences for utilizing the pay-to-play model, Andreassen said. The emphasis on winning to keep kids signed up and continue making money has stomped creativity out of American players, who are encouraged to play safely to ensure results instead of developing a players' feel for the game.

But Andreassen's biggest gripe with the system remains its ability to let talented kids from disadvantaged backgrounds slip through the cracks. Players who can't afford the registration fees or the travel. And particularly kids from underserved communities who aren't given the same opportunities, even if they have the deep cultural love for the game that commentators frequently blame for America's mediocre performance on the world stage.

"I think we're making some headway there," Andreassen said. "We're finding some of the kids, but we're not even close to casting that net to find all the talented kids in the underserved communities."

Can Pochettino get it done?

Back in 2024, the United States Soccer Federation (USSF) made a statement. After a strained six-year tenure under coach Gregg Berhalter, the USSF named Argentine coach Mauricio Pochettino as the USMNT's newest coach through the 2026 World Cup.

Pochettino arrived with a remarkable managerial résumé. He won the Ligue 1 title with French powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain during the 2021-22 season, but made his name by leading English club Tottenham Hotspur to the Champions League final in 2019. Coming off a tumultuous season at Chelsea, Pochettino took the job with the USMNT, his first time coaching international soccer instead of club.

His two years with the USMNT have been mixed. In 24 games, Pochettino has won 13, lost nine and drawn two. The United States was eliminated from the 2024-25 CONCACAF Nations League in the semifinals by Panama and lost the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup Final against Mexico, though Pochettino had called up a relatively inexperienced squad.

Managing a national team has some major challenges. Players spend most of their time away at their professional clubs, and national team managers have significantly less time to install a system or philosophy of play. Two of the top club managers in the world, Barcelona's Hansi Flick and PSG's Luis Enrique, struggled to replicate their club successes with Germany and Spain, respectively.

It's also worth noting Pochettino's biggest managerial successes came with teams loaded with talent. Tottenham's Champions League runner-up season featured English striker Harry Kane - currently one of the favorites for the 2026 Ballon d'Or Award for the world's best player after scoring 61 goals in 51 games for German giant Bayern Munich - and South Korean winger Son Heung-Min.

Pochettino's title-winning season at PSG boasted a front three that included Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr. But the Parisian club failed to win the Coupe de France, the Trophée des Champions and was most notably knocked out of the Champions League in the Round of 16 by Real Madrid, despite taking a 1-0 aggregate goal lead into the second leg of the tie.

During his lone season at Chelsea, Pochettino led a rebuilding, inexperienced squad to a sixth-place finish in the Premier League after a second-half revival but still departed after less than a year.

And Pochettino's future with the USMNT is already under question before the World Cup starts. According to a report by The Athletic, the coach met with AC Milan about its vacant coaching position just a week ago. His current contract with the USSF expires after the World Cup.

Pochettino denied he met directly with AC Milan on Thursday, but did not extend that statement to his representatives. However, he noted he has every intention of seeing out his current contract.

We always say we finish our contract in July after the World Cup," he told reporters on Thursday. "Of course that we have approaches and … of course I met some people, different clubs. But that is a conversation because we have friends in football. We have friends everywhere, and my representatives work for me to try to find the best possibility for the future. That is normal."

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This story was originally published May 30, 2026 at 6:46 AM.