2026 Roland Garros Men's Seed Report: Jannik Sinner vs. the Field
This is a feature of tennis, not a bug. This is a virtue of tennis, not a shortcoming. But holy heck, do the men's and women's draws for the 2026 French Open (or Roland Garros per the directive of the hommes and femmes in branding) present two different scenarios. A mountain vs. a valley. A monopoly vs. a socialist society. Order vs. chaos.
In the men's draw, there is Jannik Sinner, and then there are 127 other players tasked with trying to beat the man who has more tournament titles (five) than defeats this year (two). Not only that, but his biggest rival and the two-time defending champion, Carlos Alcaraz, is out with a wrist injury. If Sinner does not win, it will take extraordinary force majeure (an injury, a hot day or warm sushi) or extraordinary force of will from an opponent. It's sports, anything is possible. But it's Sinner vs. the field. And note that his win would complete the career Grand Slam, the box set of majors that Alcaraz picked up in Australia.
The top 16
1. Jannik Sinner
Tennis's lead engineer came within a point of winning this trophy in 2025-and his stock is soaring, especially with his rival out. Unbeatable (unplayable?) over the past few months, statistically, he's a Rafael Nadal–level favorite. At the previous major, he lost to a 38-year-old. He remains vulnerable to extreme conditions, so nothing is a sure thing, but says here he wins.
(Let's take a moment to mourn the absence of defending champion, Alcaraz.)
2. Alexander Zverev
Yes, Zverev has yet to win a major; he is closer in ranking points to you, dear reader, than he is to the two stars ahead of him, and has not won a title in more than a year. And he struggles against Sinner. Still, he's been a top-five stalwart for a long, long time now. At the previous major, he served for the match against Alcaraz, the eventual champion. And he can play on clay. He's unlikely to win, but credit him for putting himself in this position for years.
3. Novak Djokovic
Can he close the gap between who he was and who he is. Djokovic is 39 and almost three years removed from his 24th major. Yes, he is a threat, all the more so given Alcaraz's status. Yes, even at his advanced age and play-when-I-wanna phase, he's made the semifinals (or better) at five consecutive majors. One wishes, perhaps, that he had more match (and more match wins) play coming into Paris. But he's playing best-of-five and he's already beaten Sinner at a major this year. Why's he still playing? For occasions like this. This is a brutal draw for him, but it's often been thus.
4. Félix Auger-Aliassime
Credit him for making a return to the upper echelon, but he has cooled off in 2026 and clay has never been his choice surface. His career record at Roland Garros is 6–6. On the plus side, if it rains and we play indoor tennis, his odds go up. He faces a tough first-round matchup against Daniel Altmaier.
5. Ben Shelton
There's a big delta for Shelton, the highest-ranked of the American men. He's already won two titles-including Munich on clay-and he's put himself in position for success. He then went winless in Madrid and Rome and fell to Altmaier. The salon is getting impatient for a true breakthrough at a major, but Shelton is a better clay-court player than one might think. And his fondness for battle is never in doubt.
6. Daniil Medvedev
Who knows which Medvedev will show up? Not least him. There are times when he's looked like the former No. 1 player that he is, like his run in Rome, and his takedown of Alcaraz on the gritty hard court of Indian Wells. There are times when he has looked lost, like a 6–0, 6–0 defeat on clay to Matteo Berrettini at the Monte Carlo Masters. It's no secret that clay isn't his choice surface, and he was bounced in the first round at Roland Garros in 2025. But (again: see Rome) he's better on clay than he lets on. And he never ceases to amuse.
7. Taylor Fritz
To his credit, he plays a lot, early, often and without complaint, even when clearly not 100%. Clay presents its challenges for him, and last year he went out in the opening round to Altmaier.
8. Alex de Minaur
Alas, he's become a player who is as predictable as he is admirable. Despite some shaky clay play, he'll likely get to the second week. He'll likely compete gamely. He'll likely fall to a player with slightly more gears and/or wattage. (And he's likely still processing that utterly devastating loss to Rafael Jodar in Madrid.)
9. Alexander Bublik
Heturned his year (career?) around at Roland Garros in 2025, reaching the quarterfinals after a week of gutsy wins. Bublikhas hada strong start to the year, winning Hong Kong and playing to his seeding in Australia, but it's been a tough slog after that.
10. Flavio Cobolli
He is a fun-to-watch, up-and-down player, whose performance-and thus results-can and will waver significantly.
11. Andrey Rublev
He is too good a player not to be taken seriously, but too erratic to be considered a serious contender.
12. Jiří Lehečka
He is a streaky player who reached the Miami final and, perhaps surprisingly, has stayed relatively hot on clay.
13. Karen Khachanov
He is a pro's pro whose factory setting is to play well in Week 1 and lose to a player with more gears and athleticism in Week 2.
14. Luciano Darderi
He has five clay titles for his career, and his run in Rome included drive-bys past Tommy Paul, Yannick Hanfmann, Jodar, Zverev and this poor kid.
15. Casper Ruud
The former Roland Garros finalist (twice) is always dangerous on his best surface, as we saw in Rome. His run to the final there enabled him to move up eight spots and, critically, into a top-16 position.
16. Valentin Vacherot
Vacherot remains one of the great stories in modern tennis. Last year he failed to qualify for the French Open, this year the French-born Monegasque enters Paris as a top-16 player.
Seeds 17–32
17. Arthur Fils
Rankings be damned (and hip injury set aside), put him among your top contenders not named Jannik Sinner. He's not seeded higher because he missed so much time (from an injury he sustained at Roland Garros 2025). He's been a force on clay this spring. The obligatory notes that the injury he incurred in Rome douses some of the hype. And it's been more than 40 years since Roland Garros had a homegrown men's champion.
21. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
If Zverev is perhaps the best player ever to have never won a major, might Fokina be the best player never to have won a title of any size? It's unlikely to happen here, but he's dangerous, fun to watch and destined to win something soon.
23. The Argentines
Start with Francisco Cerúndolo and his disproportionately big forehand but note Tomás Martín Etcheverry (who has a pet named Roland Garros). And while we're here, dark horses include Mariano Navone, Román Andrés Burruchaga, Thiago Tirante and Sebastián Báez.
24. Tommy Paul
Can the former Roland Garros junior champion bring his athleticism and speed to bear on clay? Is he near optimal health?
27. Rafael Jódar
Jodar's vertiginous ascent continues. You worry about his durability in best-of-five matches, but his talent is undeniable. In this year with no Nadal and no Alcaraz, will another Spaniard help fill the void?
28. João Fonseca
The Brazilian prospect-still, we forget, only 19-will be watched closely. His withdrawal from Hamburg due to discomfort in his right wrist, though, is cause for concern.
30. Corentin Moutet
He plays tennis like a pool shark and is such a joy to watch.
Dark horse corridor
Alexander Blockx: Thebig Belgian, only 21, is coming into his own and coming off a semifinalist showing in Madrid.
Dino Prižmić: The Croatian has found a groove, and he's only 20.
Jaume Munar: It'sbeen a rough year, but he has emerged as a tough out, especially-though not exclusively-on clay.
Mariano Navone: They keep coming, these underrated Argentines.
Ethan Quinn: He hasa mean forehand and, forgive the pun, a high tennis EQ. What a smooth transition into the top 50.
Daniel Altmaier: Never mind the bonus points for the one-handed backhand. Has a career win at Roland Garros over Sinner.
Stefanos Tsitsipas: He's nowhere near the player who came within a set of the French Open title, but he's way too good for this dispiriting run. Tsitsipas is now ranked closer to 100 than 50.
Matteo Berrettini: This year marks hisfirst Roland Garros appearance since 2021 (when he made the quarterfinals). Clay isn't his strongest surface, but anyone who beats a former No. 1 (Medvedev) 6–0, 6–0 on clay deserves mention.
Ignacio Buse: The Peruvian, only 22, is on the move.
Martín Landaluce: Because Spain needs more young talent …
Stan Wawrinka: All former champions merit mention, even those north of 40.
First round matches to watch
- Fils vs. Wawrinka: The future vs. the past.
- Etcheverry vs. Nuno Borges
- Rublev vs. Buse
- Djokovic vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: The best serve bot vs. the best returner.
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Eliot Spizzirri
- Marin Čilić vs. Moise Kouame: A former major champion vs. a teenage up-and-comer.
- Baez vs. Burruchaga: This has fiver-setter written all over it.
Upset special
Altmaier d. Auger-Aliassime
Doubles winner
Harri Heliövaara and Henry Patten
Semifinals
Sinner d. Medvedev
Djokovic d. Zverev
Final
Sinner d. Djokovic
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2026 Roland Garros Men's Seed Report: Jannik Sinner vs. the Field.
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This story was originally published May 21, 2026 at 8:33 AM.