Forecasters Say El Niño Odds Now Over 90%, But Uncertainty Remains
Well, it's now almost a sure bet El Niño will appear this summer or winter, according to the latest update from the Climate Prediction Center.
The agency pegged the odds that the climate phenomena would emerge between May and July at 82%. By December, those odds will climb higher, up to 96%.
El Niño occurs when the tropical Pacific warms and is known to have wide-ranging impacts on the weather. It's one part of the three-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, and closely watched by meteorologists, officials, surfers, and skiers alike.
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What remains less certain is how strong this event will be, even as worries swirl about a supposed "Godzilla" or "Super" El Niño. "There is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance," the CPC noted.
Still, by December, the agency anticipates that there's a two in three chance El Niño will be "strong" or "very strong." In that time frame, the odds of El Niño being "weak" are only about 10%.
Strength, in this case, refers to how far ocean temperatures rise above average. They need to get above the two-degree mark for El Niño to reach "very strong" status. As for knock-on effects, when El Niño is stronger, it can "make certain impacts more likely," according to the CPC. Strength doesn't "ensure strong impacts," though, the agency explained.
As a refresher for skiers in North America, El Niño tends to favor the southern half of the U.S. snowfall-wise, including Nevada, southern Utah, and parts of Colorado. Much of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, leans towards less snow than usual.
Globally, El Niño can contribute to intense rainfall, floods, and droughts, depending on the part of the world. These outcomes aren't guaranteed, though. ENSO just stacks the deck, with a stronger El Niño having a greater chance of following the historical pattern.
El Niño is also associated with warmer global temperatures. We'll "probably be looking at record global temperatures next year, especially if this is a very strong El Niño event," Liz Stephens, professor of climate risk and resilience, recently told the BBC.
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This story was originally published May 15, 2026 at 3:30 AM.