Kentucky Derby Favorite Has History Against It

The Kentucky Derby is just hours away, and the anticipation is only building. As fans prepare to make their final call on who will win the Derby, an unfortunate streak involving the favorite horse has emerged.

Earlier, it was announced that The Puma was scratched from the race due to a skin infection. However, the news didn't affect the odds much, as Renegade was announced as the favorite with 5/1 odds on the morning of the race.

While that may encourage many to put their money on the Arkansas Derby winner, history suggests that could be risky. According to BloodHorse, no horse has won the Derby starting from Post 1 in 40 years. Ferdinand was the last to win from that position in 1986.

This can be a disadvantage, as with 19 horses in the field, those starting on the inside can get bumped or shuffled back. Horses starting from the inside post have only won eight editions since 1930. The owner, Mike Repole, claimed to have shared a text in which he said that "18, 19, 20" positions would have been better than the one they got.

The post positions are declared through a draw. While luck and even history aren't on Renegade's side, they will hope to overcome the setback with a win at Churchill Downs. The horse will be ridden by veteran Irad Ortiz Jr who hasn't hit the board during his nine mounts in the Derby.

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This story was originally published May 2, 2026 at 6:54 AM.