Who should you bet on in the 2026 Kentucky Derby? Here’s what the experts say
It’s almost time for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, which will be run Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and the 152nd running of the race appears to be fairly wide open.
Arkansas Derby winner Renegade is the morning-line favorite at 4-1 odds, but he drew the No. 1 post position, which hasn’t produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986. The Florida Derby trio of Commandment (6-1), The Puma (10-1) and Chief Wallabee (8-1) will all be popular choices, as will Further Ado (6-1), who romped to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland by 11 lengths in his last start.
Beyond that group, there are several intriguing long shots to be found, including Emerging Market (15-1), who has just two career starts for trainer Chad Brown, as well as Santa Anita Derby runner-up Potente (20-1), who appears to be Bob Baffert’s top contender this year.
The Herald-Leader asked horse racing experts from across the country for their picks and analysis. Here’s a look at the predictions from our panel.
Frank Angst
BloodHorse
Win: Emerging Market
Place: Chief Wallabee
Show: Potente
Comment: His improving speed figures suggest a horse that is about to deliver a career-best effort; granted it will only be his third start. But he’s won both his races, picked up great experience in a hard-fought Louisiana Derby, which he won despite a track bias based on my ratings; and features an Eclipse Award-winning owner (Seth Klarman), trainer (Chad Brown) and jockey (Flavien Prat). Beyond the two wins, I love the string of works he’s put together for Brown since the March 21 Louisiana Derby. I think he has enough speed to stay close early and get the jump on the many top closers in this race.
Caton Bredar
FanDuel Racing
Win: Emerging Market
Place: Potente
Show: Further Ado
Comment: Emerging Market has looked as good as any Derby horse training at Churchill Downs the past couple weeks and while he’s trying to buck history with only two starts, he’s undefeated in both, has a maturity that exceeds his experience and has the look of a horse who will appreciate the mile and a quarter.
Steve Byk
At the Races
Win: Emerging Market
Place: Further Ado
Show: Incredibolt
Comment: In a Derby with a particularly confusing cast, Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market provides the unique opportunity to key wagers on an underexposed and talented mid-pack closing colt from the best trainer (Chad Brown) and jockey (Flavien Prat) in the game.
Ed DeRosa
Horse Racing Nation
Win: Fulleffort (SCRATCHED)
Place: Further Ado
Show: Emerging Market
Comment: It’s a Brad Cox exacta for me, and we’ll lean on the bigger price for our Kentucky Derby win bet. Fulleffort looked great when winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks, a race I thought Stark Contrast had in the bag, but Fulleffort was just too good. Yes, dirt and post 20 are legitimate question marks, but 20-1 is a fair price to answer those questions.
Joe Drape
New York Times
Win: Further Ado
Place: Commandment
Show: Chief Wallabee
Comment: He’s the fastest colt and has won before at Churchill.
Cameron Drummond
Herald-Leader
Win: Commandment
Place: Emerging Market
Show: The Puma
Comment: Emerging Market proves to be the best horse this Triple Crown season, but his inexperience costs him in the Derby.
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: The Puma
Place: Commandment
Show: Chief Wallabee
Comment: Following in the footsteps of his stablemate and 2023 Derby winner Mage, who ran a career-best race after finishing second in the Florida Derby.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: The Puma
Place: Commandment
Show: Emerging Market
Comment: The favorites in this race all have their question marks, especially with Renegade drawing the rail. I’ll take The Puma, who I believe has room to take a big step forward and give trainer Gustavo Delgado his second Derby victory.
Steve Haskin
National turf writer
Win: Danon Bourbon
Place: Emerging Market
Show: Fulleffort (SCRATCHED)
Comment: Renegade, The Puma, and Further Ado are my top three ranked horses, but because they are so hard to separate and their odds so short I am taking a wild stab at the unknown and the chance Danon Bourbon and Emerging Market could be special.
Scott Hazelton
FanDuel Racing
Win: Potente
Place: Further Ado
Show: Fulleffort (SCRATCHED)
Comment: Admittedly, Potente was not a horse even close to being on my radar coming into Kentucky Derby week. But after watching him work on Sunday at Churchill Downs and seeing how easily fast he went, without being tired one bit seeing him come back to the barn, my opinion instantly changed. This horse flies over the Churchill Downs dirt far easier than his work at Santa Anita. I’m all in on Potente.
Brooks Holton
Courier Journal
Win: Incredibolt
Place: Commandment
Show: The Puma
Comment: This feels like a Derby where something out of the ordinary happens. Run for the Roses newcomers Riley Mott (trainer), Jaime Torres (jockey) and Pin Oak Stud (owner) reaching the winner’s circle would be just that.
Melissa Hoppert
New York Times
Win: Chief Wallabee
Place: Commandment
Show: Further Ado
Comment: The reigning Derby winning trainer and jockey are teaming up again with a horse who turned in a lightning-fast work at Churchill Downs after adding blinkers.
J. Keeler Johnson
National turf writer
Win: Commandment
Place: Danon Bourbon
Show: The Puma
Comment: Commandment finished fast from behind a slow pace to win the Florida Derby over a strong field. With a better pace setup in the Kentucky Derby, he’ll be formidable.
Byron King
BloodHorse
Win: Further Ado
Place: Commandment
Show: Chief Wallabee
Comment: No horse was flashier in prepping for the Kentucky Derby than Further Ado, who won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland by 11 lengths.
Steve Kornacki
NBC
Win: The Puma
Place: Renegade
Show: Potente
Comment: I think the Florida Derby was the deepest and most competitive of the major preps and this steadily improving guy all but won it — and the fact that he just missed on the photo only helps his price now.
Jessica Martini
Thoroughbred Daily News
Win: Potente
Place: So Happy
Show: Commandment
Comment: Lightly raced — and very expensive — colt suffered his first loss when second in the Santa Anita Derby but should move forward from there and turned in a lights-out work at Churchill Downs Sunday.
Ray Paulick
The Paulick Report
Win: Chief Wallabee
Place: Commandment
Show: The Puma
Comment: The Florida Derby has been the most productive race in producing Kentucky Derby winners in the past and this year’s running looked very strong to me, with my top three picks all coming out of the 2026 running at Gulfstream Park.
Mike Penna
Horse Racing Radio Network
Win: Chief Wallabee
Place: Renegade
Show: Commandment
Comment: Chief Wallabee exits the Florida Derby, a race which has produced four of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners. He draws a favorable post position and adds blinkers, which should enhance his finishing kick. Last year’s Derby winning trainer and jockey could go back to back.
Mary Rampellini
Daily Racing Form
Win: Renegade
Place: Potente
Show: Pavlovian
Comment: Renegade has kept notable company, boasts a strong closing kick, and is bred for the mile and a quarter test.
Kenny Rice
NBC
Win: Commandment
Place: Chief Wallabee
Show: Potente
Comment: Consistent fractions, adaptability puts him at top of Brad Cox’s strong trio.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: The Puma
Place: Renegade
Show: Commandment
Comment: The Puma’s last two races were impressive, his trainer (Gustavo Delgado) and jockey (Javier Castellano) won the Derby in 2023 with Mage — another colt that didn’t run as a 2-year-old — and he appears to be sitting on a big performance Saturday.
Nicole Russo
Daily Racing Form
Win: Further Ado
Place: Commandment
Show: Renegade
Comment: Further Ado has turned in dazzling efforts at Keeneland, but don’t forget, he’s already a graded stakes winner at Churchill Downs and has trained sensationally toward this race.
Tim Wilkin
National turf writer
Win: Commandment
Place: Emerging Market
Show: Renegade
Comment: Commandment knows how to find the finish line as he has won his last four. With narrow wins in Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, he’ll fight all the way to the wire. Expect to see him find it again and have him and Luis Saez survive a stirring stretch duel with Emerging Market and Renegade. Good betting race, as always, under the Twin Spires.
This story was originally published April 29, 2026 at 3:00 AM with the headline "Who should you bet on in the 2026 Kentucky Derby? Here’s what the experts say."
