Fantasy Baseball 2026: Assessing the Stolen-Base Market After the First Month
Chasing stolen bases in April fantasy baseball often leads fantasy baseball managers astray, as raw speed rarely predicts sustained volume. The first month of the 2026 fantasy baseball 2026 stolen base market reveals clear separation between true burners and opportunity plays, with players from Nasim Nunez to Cody Bellinger defining early trends.
League-wide stolen base attempts are up in early 2026 compared to 2025, continuing the post-pitch clock surge. Teams averaged ~0.85 attempts per game through April (vs. ~0.78 last year), driven by sustained aggression despite ABS zones.
Pure Burners vs Opportunity-Driven Stealers
Who Is Actually Running and Why It Matters
Meet Nasim Nuñez. A middle infielder with the Nationals, Nuñez leads the majors with 13 steals, already a high for his brief career. The seldom-used Nuñez stole 17 total bases in his first two seasons with the Nationals. He walks about 11 percent of the time and strikes out only about 20 percent of the time but he does not make great contact. Despite his great speed his BABIP is only .262, which is only 14 points below his career mark.
The Nats generally hit him 7th in the lineup, but if he can develop better contact on his swings, he could be at the top of the lineup. He's worth owning in OBP leagues, even as a streaming SB option when you need a few. Nuñez is a product of the philosophy of new Nats manager, 33-year-old Blake Butera.
In a similar vein, Chandler Simpson is a pure speed play. The Rays outfielder has swiped 9 bases, almost never walks but owns low strikeout rates as well. His .321 average makes him an intriguing option, but he is a pure SB and runs play. He's hit only one HR in his major-and-minor league career.
We also see a healthy Elly De La Cruz returning to the stolen base game this season after a mysterious leg injury sapped his power and speed late last year. With 6 steals in 8 attempts, we can guess he'll try to steal about 50 times this season, a positive sign, and important to his overall fantasy value.
We mentioned Cody Bellinger, despite just 3 stolen bases. But with 4 attempts so far, if he attempts 25 steals and manages 18–20, that is extra value above his 13 steals last year. For a number 3 hitter in a good lineup, that is indicative of the continuing commitment to swiping bases in MLB.
Players Showing Sustainable SB Volume
Green-Light Candidates Likely to Maintain Production
Here are the top 10 in stolen bases after one month, and those generally on pace for about 40 or more steals. (There are actually 12 since there is a tie at 7 steals.)
| Player | SB | HR |
|---|---|---|
Nasim Nuñez | 13 | 0 |
José Ramirez | 11 | 6 |
José Caballero | 11 | 3 |
Oneil Cruz | 10 | 8 |
Jakob Marsee | 9 | 1 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 9 | 2 |
Bobby Witt Jr. | 9 | 1 |
Chandler Simpson | 9 | 0 |
Randy Arozarena | 7 | 2 |
Nico Hoerner | 7 | 4 |
Brice Turang | 7 | 4 |
Sal Stewart | 7 | 9 |
We see the pure speed guys, Nuñez and Simpson of course, but a number of capable power bats here as well, with rookie phenom Sal Stewart impressing so far in 2026.
We mentioned Bellinger above, but seeing Chisholm and Caballero signals a different kind of Yankee team that more freely steals bases and keeps the line moving, which helps explain Bellinger's early modest increase in stolen base attempts.
The Bottom Line on the 2026 Stolen-Base Market
Sustainable 2026 fantasy baseball stolen bases hinge on opportunity matching speed, not April flash. Prioritize Nunez, Witt, and De La Cruz for trades. Monitor May lineups and listen to and read manager quotes for the next clues on stolen base philosophies.
Fantasy Baseball 2026 Stolen-Base Market Questions, Answered
Why are stolen bases easy to misread after the first month?
Managers often chase raw speed instead of actual opportunity created by lineup position, on-base skill, and manager philosophy.
Which players are defining the 2026 stolen-base market so far?
Nasim Nunez and Cody Bellinger are standout examples of opportunity-driven production versus pure burners.
Should fantasy managers still chase speed early in the season?
Only when it is paired with consistent opportunity; volume and green-light status matter more than 40-steal potential alone.
How should managers adjust their rosters based on early SB data?
Buy low on players with strong underlying opportunity and sell high on those whose early volume is unlikely to continue.
When will the stolen-base market stabilize?
By late May to early June, enough data will exist to separate sustainable producers from small-sample outliers.
Copyright 2026 The Arena Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This story was originally published April 27, 2026 at 10:39 AM.