OK, I get it — I’m never going to make predictions about the Seahawks again (for now)

I’m not sure exactly when it happened, but at some point during the first two months of this calendar year I lost touch with the pulse of our region’s pro football team.

This is a professional problem and something of a personal embarrassment. While I have never proclaimed to be able to predict exactly what the Seahawks would do under GM John Schneider, I can’t ever recall being so confident in making an assessment that turned out to be so wro …

So wrrrrrrooooooo …

So absolutely, unmistakably, utterly erroneous.

Last month in this space, I predicted that Geno Smith was going to be the Seahawks quarterback next season. Not only that, I used a somewhat patronizing tone to explain why this was the right decision.

And then — as Friday afternoon turned into Friday evening – the NFL’s official app delivered an alert to my cell phone stating that the Seahawks had agree to trade Smith to the Raiders for a third-round pick.

Now, a lesser man than myself would hide behind the fact that I was simply taking Schneider and coach Mike Macdonald at their word. They’ve each said quite specifically over the past month that Smith was their “guy,” the quarterback they wanted here for the long haul.

But I know better than to take what’s said in an NFL press conference at face value. It was just three years ago that Pete Carroll asserted that Russell Wilson wasn’t going to be traded, and just six days later, Seattle reached an agreement that sent him to Denver. While that trade was obviously more significant, it wasn’t nearly as surprising to me as this decision to deal Smith.

If I had more bravado, I would start swearing up and down about just how big of a mistake the Seahawks are making. I thought Smith was more a life preserver than an albatross last season, keeping the offense afloat in spite of routinely poor pass protection. The fact that Sam Howell pretty much drowned amidst the pressure he faced when he stepped in for Smith during the final two quarters of a December loss to Green Bay showed just how much Seattle was asking of Smith.

And I do think that Seattle would be better off keeping Smith.

However, I also recognize that he has flaws, some of which cropped up near the opponent’s goal line last season. I can also understand how it is possible to conclude that the money Smith was seeking would have tied Seattle to a quarterback who would keep the Seahawks good without ever having a chance to be great.

What I find myself most disappointed in, however, is how poorly I read this particular situation.

I failed to understand just how contingent Seattle’s interest was in Smith. The Seahawks were open to keeping Smith, but there was a hard limit to how much they would spend to do it. When Smith didn’t accept Seattle’s offer, the Seahawks didn’t flinch at opting for the unknown at the game’s most important position.

It’s gutsy, but Schneider’s never been timid about that sort of thing.

In fact, this is very reminiscent of how Matt Hasselbeck’s tenure with the Seahawks ended back in 2011.

Hasselbeck was 35 and he had played out his contract. The Seahawks had offered Hasselbeck an extension after the season ended, but the quarterback sought a stronger guarantee in the contract. Schneider held firm, and with a potential lockout looming, he set a deadline. If the deal hadn’t been accepted and there was a lockout, Schneider said, the offer wouldn’t be on the table when the league resumed business. That’s exactly what happened, and when Hasselbeck heard from the Seahawks on that first day teams could negotiate with free agents, he was told the team was going in a different direction. Seattle signed Tarvaris Jackson.

Smith is 34, and unlike Hasselbeck, he still had a year remaining on his deal. The two sides never got all that close to an agreement on an extension to that contract. Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported the Seahawks offered Smith a deal in the neighborhood of $35 million annually while Smith was seeking something like $45 million.

Now, he’s expected to get north of $40 million in Las Vegas where he’ll play for Carroll, the coach who rebuilt his confidence.

And the Seahawks? They need at least one new quarterback, maybe two, and their best receiver just asked for a trade. If I didn’t know better, this looks like a team preparing to take a step back in 2025 with an eye toward getting significantly better down the road.

That’s not how Schneider is going to be looking at this, though. He believes they’ll get a quarterback who can be as good as Smith while retaining the flexibility they would have lost had they met Smith’s asking price.

I believe the Seahawks are making a mistake in moving on from Smith without having a clear upgrade on hand. I believe the money they won’t have to pay Smith isn’t sufficient to find an improvement. I believe that if free agent Sam Darnold winds up signing in Seattle as some are suggesting, he might drown in the pass pressure that Seattle’s offensive line allows.

I recognize that I could be very wrong about this, however. In fact, I’m a little hesitant to offer anything regarding a prediction about what the Seahawks would, could or should do at quarterback given my recent track record.

Danny O’Neil was born in Oregon, the son of a logger, but had the good sense to attend college in Washington. He’s covered Seattle sports for 20 years, writing for two newspapers, one glossy magazine and hosting a daily radio show for eight years on KIRO 710 AM. You can subscribe to his free newsletter and find his other work at dannyoneil.com.

This story was originally published March 8, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "OK, I get it — I’m never going to make predictions about the Seahawks again (for now)."