Pro-Con: Do big wins in Virginia and New Jersey bode well for Dems in mid-term elections?

Democrats will ride newly won momentum to big victories in 2018

With sweeping victories Nov. 7 in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as in local races and on left-leaning ballot questions around the country, Democrats are poised to ride a wave through the 2018 elections.

Many commentators and pundits declared these races to be an important measure of how Donald Trump’s presidency is sitting with today’s voters.

The answer was swift, wide-reaching and decisive. Perhaps the most telling results were the massive number of legislative seats picked up by Democrats in Virginia.

Having held a majority since the election of 1999 and sporting a 66-34 margin, Republicans are now counting on a handful of recounts to retain control of House of Delegates.

It would seem that by simply running against Trump, Democrats are likely to make major gains. While mid-terms are notoriously unkind to a first-term president’s party and Trump is particularly unpopular, he cannot seem to stay off Twitter or get out of the way of his own agenda. He is his own worst enemy.

There’s a less positive side, though, to the long-term impact that Democrats could have. Humorist Will Rogers quipped, “I am not a member of an organized political party. I am a Democrat,” and it has been a tough stretch for the Democratic Party as an organization.

Despite the optimism generated by this November’s victories, massive losses at the state and local level have depleted the farm team, demoralized the base and eroded the ability to compete.

Organizing infrastructure has been replaced with an unhealthy reliance on slick ads, social media campaigns and mobilizing an ever-disconnected base. The once-strong connection to local needs has largely been lost in the mix.

Here’s where a significant lesson could be learned. In the race for Virginia House District 13, a classic polarized battle could easily have emerged.

The Republican incumbent had once lauded himself as Virginia’s “chief homophobe” and sported a legislative record straight out of a wedge politics playbook. His Democratic challenger was a progressive transgender woman with experience in the media.

What happened harkens back to the line, most associated with former House Speaker Tip O’Neill, that “all politics is local.”

Despite being a direct target of one of incumbent Republican Bob Marshall’s social crusades to restrict bathroom usage by transgender individuals, Democrat Danica Roem ran her campaign from start to finish almost exclusively on local issues: traffic, jobs, schools and wages.

Yes, she did mention and discuss equality, but in a broader sense even when a narrow path seemed so obvious.

“Fix Route 28” could have been all you needed to know about Danica’s platform in a growing commuter community clogged for a decade by its main roadway and with little to no help from the area’s sitting representative in the state house.

National advocacy groups on both sides weighed in with money and help. The media, during and after, focused on the fact that Danica would be one of the first openly transgender people elected to office.

But that was never what Danica focused on. Even after her election as the national media came calling, Danica kept talking about traffic, jobs and schools and refused to criticize her opponent.

The campaign reportedly knocked on 75,000 doors in multiple passes through a district with approximately 55,000 voters. They pleaded the case for change and connecting with voters on these important local issues.

This is just one pullout story, but the lesson it could provide Democrats nationwide is to connect with people face to face about issues they care about. Then Democrats may turn a wave into a tsunami, not just in 2018 but beyond.

Dems reckon wrongly if they think far-left agendas play well nationally

Democrats have an almost delusional case of wishful thinking that relying on far-left positions and Trump bashing will guarantee them sweeps in the 2018 midterm elections.

Senior Democrats are citing the decisive victories their candidates won in off-year gubernatorial races in Democratic New Jersey and Virginia as proof that largely running far to the left against President Donald Trump and his policies is a surefire way to win.

They would be wise to remember that politics is like a football: It isn’t round and it will take funny bounces when you least expect it.

First, lets examine the Virginia race.

Liberals and moderates went for Democrat Ralph Northam, helped by the strong support of women, African-Americans, younger voters and those who strongly disapprove of Trump.

However, other factors loomed large there. GOP candidate Ed Gillespie was a weak choice and had some enormous handicaps to overcome. If Gillespie gave a fireside chat, the fire would fall asleep.

Meanwhile, Virginia has turned solidly Democratic in recent decades, largely due to the enormous — and ever growing — number of federal bureaucrats and consultants in the huge parasite economy in Northern Virginia.

They love big government, and Democrats happily provide it.

In addition, Gillespie had to overcome fierce and constant opposition from alt-left Washington Post and NBC and its affiliates, which combined have decisive election power in Virginia’s northern suburbs.

Here’s a sample from a typical Post editorial on Gillespie: “His campaign’s thrust has not been just a dog whistle to the intolerant, racially resentful parts of the Republican base; it’s been a mating call.” Much network coverage reflected that viewpoint, a huge problem in the super-heated and super-sensitive politics of 2017.

Meanwhile, let’s consider some election history independent of Trump.

In 2001, a year into President George W. Bush’s first term, Democrats took back the governorships in New Jersey and Virginia. Since 1862, the president’s party has averaged 32-seat losses in the House in the first midterms after his election. In 2010, Republicans gained 63 seats in the House, just two years after a huge Obama presidential victory.

Trump might kill the GOP’s chances for the next decade or longer. However, the GOP loss in Virginia doesn’t prove this scenario. There’s nothing rare or even unusual about cyclical pushbacks in politics.

If every election had the kind of major importance that pundits claim, we would be going through seismic ideological changes every year, which doesn’t happen.

In New Jersey, GOP Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno had little chance because her fortunes were closely tied to the most unpopular governor in America, Chris Christie, who had a voter approval rating of 14 percent.

Christie was wildly popular with his largely blue collar constituents until he developed a severe case of entitlement fever and tried to be American royalty.

What’s more, the state’s changing demographics also increased Democrat Phil Murphy’s chances of winning. In 2007, there were 200,000 more registered Democrats in New Jersey than Republicans. By 2017, there were 800,000 more Democrats, almost impossible odds to overcome.

This story was originally published November 16, 2017 at 4:00 PM with the headline "Pro-Con: Do big wins in Virginia and New Jersey bode well for Dems in mid-term elections?."