Should the United States support regime change in Venezuela?

Yes: Trump should muster an international rescue of Venezuela

There are not enough tear gas canisters or bullets in Venezuela to sustain the regime of dictator Nicolas Maduro, which is so cash-strapped it can’t even import food. And although his Cuban and Russian masters are willing to see hungry Venezuelans beaten into submission, the international community is not.

There is an emerging consensus among key nations in the region and among bipartisan leaders in Congress that Venezuelans can resolve this crisis if they are able to choose a new government that will end violent repression, respect democratic institutions and rebuild a free market economy. Urgent action by the administration of President Donald Trump can ensure this outcome.

This past Sunday, more than 7 million Venezuelans — one third of the country’s voters — took part in an opposition “plebiscite,” or unofficial referendum, repudiating the regime’s plan to convene a so-called constituent assembly and destroy the remaining vestiges of democracy and the rule of law.

Voters also overwhelmingly endorsed elections to choose a new government and called on the military to respect the constitution.

Most observers predict that regime cronies in the electoral counsel will rig a July 30 referendum to empower Maduro’s unconstitutional assembly with the aim of dissolving the opposition-controlled National Assembly and placing all power in the hands of the president.

Rather than waiting for this coup de grace, the international community should help the opposition plan a democratic transition that will pick up the pieces when Maduro’s bankrupt dictatorship collapses.

The opposition is already united in demanding the liberation of all political prisoners, respect for the authority of the National Assembly and urgent national elections.

Through the Organization of American States, the United States and key regional countries like Mexico, Brazil and Argentina can reinforce that unity by convening a working session with leaders of the democratic opposition to draft an urgent plan for a democratic transition, internationally supervised elections, humanitarian relief and economic recovery.

The United States and like-minded governments should declare that if Maduro goes forward with his plan to dissolve democracy, they will withdraw their official representatives from Caracas and treat the National Assembly as the legitimate representative of the Venezuelan people.

This ad hoc coalition also should begin building a case at the International Criminal Court against leaders and security officials of the Maduro regime for their systematic use of murder and physical violence against protesters.

The Trump administration should follow up on its February sanctions against Venezuela’s vice president, Tareck El Aissami, with targeted measures to freeze the assets of other individuals who are responsible for repression, drug trafficking and looting public assets.

Washington should share with Latin American and European authorities what it knows about rampant corruption in Venezuela — its state-run oil company is but one example — and press for strong multilateral sanctions.

Treasury officials from these governments should also form a task force responsible for locating, freezing and repatriating the hundreds of billions of dollars stolen from the Venezuelan people by Maduro and his cronies.

This international team can ensure that Venezuela’s transitional government has access to urgent financing to import food and medicine, deal with crushing international debt, and rebuild a collapsed economy and infrastructure.

President Trump can ensure strong domestic support for these measures by working with Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., to enhance and pass the Venezuela Humanitarian Assistance and Defense of Democratic Governance Act of 2017, which they introduced months ago.

This urgent rescue mission to help a South American neighbor may be a rare opportunity for broad-based international and bipartisan cooperation.

Like-minded democratic allies in the Americas and beyond must not wait for Venezuela’s tragic collapse to deepen further. Nor should they hesitate in telling Russia, China and Cuba to get on the right side of the Venezuelan people or stay out of their way.

No: Venezuela needs negotiation, not American intervention

What kind of role should Washington play in Venezuela’s crisis? Well, what kind of role should Russia play in U.S. politics and elections? The answer to both questions is the same: None at all.

Unfortunately, recent U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s domestic affairs has dwarfed anything anyone has even accused Vladimir Putin of doing here.

According to the U.S. State Department, Washington “provided training, institution building, and other support to individuals and organizations understood to be actively involved” in the 2002 military coup against former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that ultimately failed. And since the coup, Washington has provided tens of millions of dollars to the Venezuelan opposition.

In 2013, when the opposition initiated violent protests to overturn the results of a democratic election, Washington supported the protesters. The same was again true in 2014.

Today, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., openly threatens governments in the region, including those of the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Haiti, with punishment if they do not cooperate with Washington’s abuse of the Organization of American States to delegitimize the government of Venezuela.

And the administration of President Donald Trump is threatening more economic sanctions against Venezuela, which will only worsen shortages of food and medicine there.

Deeper involvement is dangerous. Venezuela, after all, remains a divided country. President Nicolas Maduro’s approval rating has been about 21 percent over the past year, but other numbers show things aren’t so simple.

A recent poll from a widely cited pro-opposition pollster, Datanalisis, shows 51 percent supporting the current ongoing protests, with 44 percent against.

Some 55 percent continue to approve of the late Chavez, which reflects the decade of economic and social progress the country had before it fell into recession in 2014.

Despite the current crisis, there are millions of Venezuelans, especially those associated with the government and the governing party, who have reason to fear an opposition takeover.

After the 2002 coup, with the short-lived opposition government in power, government officials were detained and dozens of people were killed. And today’s opposition leaders have rarely denounced the sometimes-fatal violence their supporters have carried out in the current wave of protests.

Because of this political polarization, Venezuela needs a negotiated solution that provides credible, constitutional guarantees that whichever side loses the next election will not be politically persecuted by a party that controls all three branches of government.

International mediation can help, as was seen earlier this month when opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez was transferred from prison to house arrest after former Spanish prime minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero played a constructive role. But the mediators must be nonpartisan, which rules out the OAS so long as it is dominated by the Trump administration.

There is a real risk Venezuela’s current strife could escalate into civil war.

Those who are familiar with the tragedies of the Washington-fueled civil wars of the 1980s in Central America, which took hundreds of thousands of mostly innocent lives, must take this threat seriously, particularly because the Trump administration could block or sabotage a negotiated solution if it appears within reach.

This story was originally published July 20, 2017 at 12:34 PM with the headline "Should the United States support regime change in Venezuela?."