Housing First leads to fewer jail visits, King County data shows

New King County data shows jail bookings declined for people who got stable housing through the region's main approach to resolving homelessness, which the Trump administration has sharply criticized and moved to slash funding for.

The county this week released an analysis of data from 2021 to 2025 that found residents of permanent housing programs across King County ended up in jail 27% less in the first year after moving in. As their time in the program continued, jail bookings declined even more - by more than 37% within three years.

These findings are not new - research documenting fewer jail stays among residents of these programs, which provide long-term, stable housing without requiring sobriety or treatment, stretches back more than a decade. But the county's release comes at a moment when this approach to resolving homelessness, known as Housing First, faces its greatest threat to date.

The Trump administration has been fighting to move away from Housing First programs, which recently have accounted for 90% of federal homelessness funding. White House officials have argued that they failed to resolve homelessness, made people reliant on government assistance and increased crime.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development this month announced dramatic changes to federal grants that would instead dedicate about a third of the more than $4 billion available to transitional housing efforts. Those programs are time-limited and typically aimed at making homeless people self-sufficient.

King County and Seattle have invested heavily in Housing First programs as a primary solution to reducing homelessness and have relied on $65 million in federal funding annually to keep thousands of formerly homeless people housed. Under the new federal rules, about $26 million of that funding for next year is most at risk.

The new analysis, showing Housing First leads to fewer jail stays, is one example of progress that may be lost with reduced funding, said Jelani Jackson, acting director for the Housing & Community Development division within the King County Department of Community and Human Services.

"This analysis does not examine every aspect of public safety, nor does it establish causation, but it is consistent with a large body of evidence that housing stability is important to breaking the cycle-reducing homelessness and helping people move beyond repeated crises," he said in a statement.

The evidence-based approach has shown its greatest success is in keeping people housed by allowing them to get stable and connect to services on their own terms. But a common argument for its use is also that it reduces reliance on other social services, like emergency rooms and jails.

The latest analysis from King County, looking at outcomes among 5,371 residents of permanent supportive housing, found that 38% of residents had at least one jail booking before moving into housing. Within that group, 81% experienced fewer jail bookings over the period studied. That decline was visible among all racial and ethnic groups, the county said.

Research into programs in other regions has shown similar results. A 2021 study by the Urban Institute found permanent supportive housing programs in Denver resulted in a 30% drop in jail bookings within three years. A 2013 study in New York City found 40% fewer jail bookings over a two-year period.

King County has also demonstrated such positive outcomes before. In 2013, a report showed reduced jail bookings among residents of several supportive housing programs, ranging from a 27% to a 56% reduction over a one-year period.

Because these programs resulted in fewer jail stays and emergency room visits, a national study argued they more than covered their costs.

In 2025, King County estimated the cost of sustaining permanent supportive housing was roughly $41,000 per unit annually. Meanwhile, a 2024 report for the state Legislature found King County has spent $362 per person for each day in jail, which annually would exceed $132,000.

Despite this body of research, the Trump administration has maintained that permanent housing programs have exacerbated crime. To make this point, HUD's funding announcement this month specifically cited Seattle. It referenced a city survey in which some residents of permanent supportive housing buildings downtown said they felt unsafe, and it highlighted the high rate of overdoses in those buildings at the height of the region's fentanyl crisis.

This is the second time HUD has tried to limit funding for Housing First programs. The previous effort, in the middle of an existing grant cycle, faced lawsuits from local and state governments, including King County and Washington state, and was blocked in court.

The latest funding announcement, which affects a new grant cycle, is not expected to face the same challenges. The new funding rules also reward regions that have policies discouraging drug use and demonstrate progress in clearing encampments.

The King County Regional Homelessness Authority is in charge of applying for the federal funding and plans to assemble an application this summer. HUD is expected to make funding announcements at the end of the year.

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