WA's wildfire season forecast: drought and El Niño spell concern

ISSAQUAH - From a bucket lift, the crew member reached his saw blade on a pole into the bushy foliage of a Leyland cypress. Its limbs had grown into the neighborhood's power lines. Under the wrong conditions - a windy, hot day, a blown-down tree, sagging lines - this vegetation could spark a catastrophic wildfire.

With over 1,000 miles of power lines to inspect before July, the race was on this spring for the tree crews contracted by Puget Sound Energy.

This preparation to reduce the risk of a powerline-sparked wildfire has become essential as wildfire seasons have grown hotter and drier in the U.S. and Washington. Between the brewing El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the state's fourth year of drought, this year won't be an exception.

Most of the state will see above normal wildfire potential until August, when all of Washington will be at above normal wildfire risk, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. The outlook for Oregon and Idaho is similar.

While it's unclear how many wildfires might ignite or how dangerous the weather might be this summer, historical signs are pointing toward a potentially troubling season, said Matt Dehr, a fire meteorologist with Washington's Department of Natural Resources.

The state is entering the summer on the heels of a warm winter, with drought and a low snowpack. April and May were largely dry, getting the growing season started, before the back half of May brought some much needed moisture, he said.

What's also giving some concern is the El Niño outlook.

The Pacific Ocean tropics, which have a large influence on weather globally, have also already shifted into an El Niño weather pattern as of mid-June. This early formation could lead to one of the largest El Niño events in recent decades, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

While this pattern is typically most associated with warmer and drier winters in the Pacific Northwest, Dehr said, with such a strong and early El Niño establishing, it could contribute to more critical wildfire days this summer.

When an El Niño is starting to get its act together in the spring months, it tends to A: result in a much stronger event overall, and B: it is able to connect with the atmosphere and feed back into the summertime pattern in a way that it typically doesn't," he said.

In particular, Dehr said he is concerned about more frequent and longer "dry cold fronts," or days when hot dry continental air moves from Canada into the U.S. This weather pattern was associated with the fires in Spokane County in 2023 that killed two people and destroyed and damaged hundreds of homes, he said.

The pattern could also bring smoke into Western Washington from fires in British Columbia, he said.

"It's not that we will just be warm and dry all summer, it's that those warm and dry periods are more likely to exist for slightly longer periods of time than they would otherwise," Dehr said.

In Western Washington, the summer weather typically toggles between those drier hot days and cooler periods from the marine layer. This year just might see longer hot, dry periods, and maybe three or four occurrences instead of one or two, he said.

Unfortunately, the state's snowpack and the early El Niño is bringing up comparisons to Washington's 2015 fire season, the state's worst wildfire year on record, he said. But there are reasons not to panic.

"The weather itself still has a vote," Dehr said.

Other comparable years include 2018, which was above average wildfire-wise, but not too bad, and 2005, when snowpack was worse but then we had a very wet June, he said.

The first half of this June was cool and wet, Dehr said, though the season will soon heat up, especially into July. The state's wildland firefighting capacity has also grown significantly and become much more nimble since 2015, he added.

Wildfire season has already started in the Columbia Basin, which has experienced several fires larger than 1,000 acres, Dehr said. The basin is already "red flag ready," meaning that if there is critical fire weather forecast like low humidity and high winds, the area will get a red flag warning going forward. Red flag warnings are typically issued by the National Weather Service to indicate days of increased fire risk.

The next area to dry out will likely be the Eastern slopes of the Cascades, Dehr said. It will probably take Western Washington forests a little bit longer to be ready to support large wildfires. Though, Dehr added, the Bear Gulch fire started around July 4 last year in Olympic National Forest.

But there's another thing needed for a wildfire to start - ignition. While some fires spark because of lightning, the vast majority - around 80% to 90% - are human-caused in Washington, according to DNR.

That's why nearly every state agency urges travelers to recreate responsibly and homeowners living in the wildland urban interface to prepare their property and remove debris before the season. According to DNR, the agency has so far responded to 213 fires this season, around half of which were caused by escaped yard debris burns.

Back in the neighborhood near Issaquah, the PSE contractors were hard at work clearing branches from around the lines while cars passed on a one-lane road next to the heavy equipment. The utility considers this area at moderate risk for wildfire, primarily due to the number of trees and historical number of outages.

"Twenty years ago nobody was talking about utility wildfire at all," said Dave Bayard, a wildfire risk manager with PSE. " ... Over the years with climate change, it's something that is a reality everywhere in the country and all over the world.

Luckily, the tree trimming won't be the only thing preventing a wildfire. Today, PSE's wildfire monitoring has grown into a high-tech operation with specialized settings and sensors on electric lines and a suite of software tools to help staff monitor high-risk regions. Two years ago, PSE announced details for the first time on how and where it could implement preventive blackouts, during times of extreme fire risk and weather.

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This story was originally published June 17, 2026 at 6:34 AM.