Stars align for an 'unusually active' fire season forecast across Eastern Washington

A series of yearlong weather conditions have aligned to intensify this year's fire season as Eastern Washington prepares for what is expected to be another fiery summer.

With June underway, the fire season is forecast to be above average in frequency until September, according to the latest fire outlook report from the National Interagency Fire Center.

"Everything that happened over the past has set us up for a potentially big season," National Interagency Fire Center Meteorologist Jim Wallmann said. "Things still have to pan out relatively, but if we even have, like, a close to normal summer (according to the forecast), we're still expecting it to be a worse fire season than normal."

At the Department of Natural Resources, firefighters are already prepared to address fires from land and sky.

"We've got our assets - both air and ground - all prepositioned," said DNR Communications Manager Ryan Rodruck. "We have our staffing levels ready, and definitely ready to commensurate with what we feel the fire season is gonna bring."

Most of the western United States, including Eastern Washington, suffered from low snowpack during the winter months, meaning the snow came off a bit earlier than normal, according to Wallmann.

Because heavy timber areas, which are normally covered by snow, were exposed earlier, they dried out sooner. These areas give the most fuel to wildfires.

"It's an entire West problem," Wallmann said. "Up there toward Washington, Northern Idaho, you had really good, very high elevation snow at about 6,000 feet, but below that level? It was not good."

Wallmann said the other part of the equation is the growing season starts earlier when snow season ends quickly, especially if temperatures are warmer than normal. Since the grasses and foliage start growing earlier, they also cure earlier, meaning the brush dries out and causes higher fire risk.

While June's fire outlook is forecast to be above average, Wallmann said this is relative to past conditions during that month.

"June is typically a relatively quiet month," Wallmann said. "You do start seeing increasing activity, but you don't often see large fires. What (the report) is telling you in June is June is going to be unusually active."

Wallmann said the agency expects more fires than normal but mostly shorter in duration and more confined to less dense areas of vegetation during the month.

Likewise, July and August - which are typically more robust months for wildfires - will also be above average. August, the peak month of fire season, will be unusually busy, Wallmann explained.

While fire activity tends to slow down by September, Wallmann said the forecast predicts fires will persist throughout the month and likely stay elevated later into the year.

"So instead of a quicker ramp-down, we're saying it's going to be a little bit slower," Wallmann said.

Though Spokane has been experiencing bouts of rain over the past few weeks, Wallmann said the rain will only slightly delay fires and won't change things in the long term.

"It could delay it a bit longer," Wallmann said. "But it's not going to do anything for the long-term dryness that we're dealing with."

However, periodic rain - even just a quarter inch every 10 days - would help take the edge off, Wallmann said.

"But, if we end up having a heat wave," Wallmann said, "we're in trouble."

Though El Niño is set to return in the coming months, Wallmann said there likely won't be significant effects until next summer. However, the warmer weather patterns associated with El Niño may become prevalent in August and into September and contribute to an extended fire season.

Smoke and wildfires from southern British Columbia, Oregon and California could also affect Eastern Washington .

How to prepare

Right now is the best time to make preparations for fire season, according to Rodruck from the Washington Department of Natural Resources.

"Make no mistake, we are in fire season right now as we speak," Rodruck said.

Fire season prep work, like clearing property of fallen limbs and brush, moving firewood away from the house, clipping overhanging tree limbs and removing pine needles from gutters, helps harden the home and structures from being vulnerable to flames.

Rodruck said these tactics also work to help firefighters perform structure prevention in the event a fire does move through the property.

The Department of Natural Resources offers home and property assessments to ensure structures are prepared for potential fires. From there, they can connect property owners with technical assistance if work needs to be done.

Rodruck additionally recommended those at risk, especially residents living on a wildland-urban interface, to re-familiarize themselves with evacuation plans and prepare go-bags. He said now is the time to look for family treasures and valuables and check where medications are located.

Residents should also be aware and mindful of the three wildfire evacuation levels - Level 1 Ready, Level 2 Set and Level 3 Go.

"One of the other reasons we ask you to know what those evacuation levels are and certainly heed them when they happen - it's not just to get you out safely, but to get our firefighters in safely," Rodruck said.

Resources are also available for residents concerned about smoke exposure during the fire season at SmokeReadySpokane.org, where Spokane Regional Clean Air, Spokane Regional Health District and Gonzaga's Institute for Climate, Water and the Environment compiled a "one-stop shop" for smoke safety information, Spokane Regional Clean Air Communication and Outreach Director Lisa Woodard said.

Spokane Regional Health District Public Information Officer Kelli Hawkins recommended residents ensure they have proper air filters and monitor air quality. Individuals at risk include people with chronic illness, heart problems, respiratory illnesses and diabetes. People older than 65, young children and pregnant people are also at a higher risk.

Residents can sign up for air quality alerts in their locality at Air Now's EnviroFlash.Info page.

Most importantly, Rodruck said respecting fire policies and avoiding lighting fires in areas at risk is the best way to mitigate fire season.

"The easiest fire to stop is the one that doesn't start," Rodruck said.

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