Latest UW model shows progress in coronavirus curve; state cases at 8,384, death toll at 372
Washington state, keep doing what you are doing to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
According to the latest models updated April 5 at the University of Washington’ Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the state’s date for peak resource use at hospitals was April 2.
If trends continue, and full social distancing continues through May, the model projects that the state will begin the slow, downward slope of statewide cases and deaths from COVID-19 after April 6.
Statewide hospitalizations for COVID-19-like illness also appear to show a downward trend that started March 22, according to the state Department of Health’s website, though data for days after March 29 are yet to be reported.
Statewide totals posted Monday showed 8,384 cases, and 372 deaths, up from 7,984 cases and 338 deaths reported Sunday. The totals are from the previous day’s count as of 11:59 p.m..
The UW model projects that even with successful continued flattening, a total of 632 COVID-19 deaths are projected for the state by May 10, after earlier model results put the projected state toll at more than 1,000.
Nationwide, it estimates the peak resource use will occur April 15, and 3,130 COVID-19 deaths projected on April 16, and 81,766 deaths by June 22.
Pierce County on Monday reported that it now has 717 cases and a death toll of 12.
On Monday, Gov. Jay Inslee extended the statewide school closures to the end of school year, needed, he said, so as not to only flatten the curve as it goes up, but to help reduce the number of deaths as it goes down.
“We have to be intensely committed to this,” Inslee said Monday at a news conference, in explaining that the number of deaths on the downside could be as many as or more than what the state has already seen.
But, he added, the state’s residents are becoming known nationwide as “some of the most effective fighters” in leading by example in the measures the state has taken to fight the virus.
On Monday, Vice President Mike Pence, during the White House daily coronavirus news briefing, noted Washington’s “remarkable progress.”
Over the weekend, the state Department of Health issued guidelines for residents to use cloth masks when in public to help slow the spread of airborne droplets. Wearing the nonmedical grade masks is now recommended by the state “in public places where we cannot reliably stay six feet away from other people,” according to the state DOH’s post on April 5.
On Sunday, Inslee said the state would return more than 400 ventilators out of 500 sent to Washington from the federal government so they could be used in harder-hit areas such as New York. California and Oregon also returned a portion of ventilators originally designated for those states.
Washington has purchased more than 750 ventilators that will arrive in the next few weeks, according to a statement posted on the governor’s website Sunday.
BEHIND THE STORY
MOREHow we are reporting coronavirus numbers
The News Tribune reports confirmed coronavirus cases as listed by the Washington Department of Health and the Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department in their daily updates.
The state total includes all cases submitted by county health departments by 11:59 p.m. the previous day and is updated once a day by 6 p.m. on its website. Its numbers only include the cases the health departments have reported directly to the state. In some cases, county health departments have reported cases publicly but not to the state health department by the daily deadline, leading to different totals on occasion.
Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department updates its total by 2 p.m. each day on its website, and consists of all new confirmed cases reported by 11:59 p.m. the previous day.
This story was originally published April 6, 2020 at 6:54 PM with the headline "Latest UW model shows progress in coronavirus curve; state cases at 8,384, death toll at 372."
