‘Blue wave’ buoys Mid-Columbia Dems, but election math favors Republicans

Zahra Roach celebrated her winning primary performance with a Wednesday morning outing to see “Peter Rabbit” with her kids.

For Roach and the handful of Mid-Columbia Democrats who survived Tuesday’s primary, the day after was an occasion to celebrate and to ponder their performance in a mid-term election cycle.

The “blue wave” hit the Mid-Columbia primary as local voters put seven Democrats on the November ballot.

But the implications remain uncertain: Voters awarded the majority of all the votes — 60 percent in most races — to Republican candidates.

If Republican voters unite behind their preferred party in November, Democrats will be hard pressed to turn primary wins into election success.

Nevertheless, five local Democrats won spots on the November ballot, including Roach, the first Democrat to run for the staunchly Republican Franklin County Commission in a generation.

In addition to those five, two other Democrats will face Republican incumbents, for a 16th District House seat in Olympia and the race to represent Washington’s 4th District in Congress. The races were on Tuesday’s ballot but were only advisory.

That means Mid-Columbia voters will soon have the unusual opportunity to choose between a Democrat and a Republican in a myriad of key races.

“It’s got me a little rattled,” said Bill Berkman, chair of the Benton County Republican Party. “But that’s good. It motivated me to work harder and think more.”

Allison Dabler, chair of the Benton County Democrats, said a concerted effort to recruit Democrats, the party’s growing focus on Eastern Washington and on divisive politics spurred the party to success Tuesday.

“The results are reflective of what’s happening in our country right now and the decisions being made at a national level,” she said.

Dabler said the 60-40 split is a sign of the limited appeal of primaries. It will shift in the general election, when voter turnout is greater.

“The whole idea of a blue wave is go get people activated to make real change,” she said.

Roach’s race offers a telling example of the challenging math Democrats face in the coming months.

Roach, running as a fresh, young voice, won 32 percent of the primary vote. She placed second to Republican Clint Didier, a Franklin County farmer and polarizing political figure. Didier received more than 39 percent of the vote.

Another 28 percent went to Rodney “Dobie” Burns, a right-leaning independent, and Rick Miller, the three-term Republican incumbent who is now out of the job. Didier needs fewer than half of those voters to top the 50 percent mark.

Roach, who taught in Pasco schools before leaving to raise her children, said she’ll continue the strategy that worked in the primary.

“I’m planning on doing the same thing, working my tail off and continuing to meet with the residents,” she said.

Christopher Tracy, a Richland Democrat, emerged with a razor-thin lead in the race to succeed Rep. Larry Haler, a Richland Republican, in District 8, Position 2.

The retired educator and union negotiator received 38.55 percent of the vote and will face Kennewick City Councilman Matt Boehnke, a Republican who received 38.48 percent.

As of Wednesday, only 14 votes separate the top two, of 21,803 votes cast.

Boehnke only needs a fraction of the 23 percent of votes that went to Republican Gregg McConnell to top the 50 percent mark.

Tracy isn’t yielding the point. Emphasizing his consensus-building skills, he vowed to woo centrist Republicans.

“I’ll have to look for the Republicans that lean independent, the Republicans that are moderate,” he said. “I would not make the assumption that all the Republican votes will stick together in the general election.”

The 60-40 split appeared in every contested primary.

Sen. Sharon Brown, a Kennewick Republican running for re-election to represent the 8th District, received nearly 60 percent of primary vote. She will face Leo Perales, a Kennewick Democrat who had 35 percent. A third candidate, Libertarian Ryan Cooper, received 5 percent, putting the blue-leaning vote at about 40 percent.

Rep. Brad Klippert, a Kennewick Republican, received 48.5 percent of the primary vote as he seeks a sixth term in his 8th District, Position 1 post.

He’ll face Shir Regev, a Richland Democrat who received 35 percent. The Republican vote soars to 65 percent when the 17 percent of ballots cast for Richland City Councilman Phillip Lemley are added.

The pattern holds in the sprawling 16th District, which extends from Walla Walla to Pasco and through southern Benton County to Prosser. Pasco Democrat Rebecca Francik was the top finisher with 40 percent of the primary vote.

She’ll face Skyler Rude, a Walla Walla Republican who received 35 percent of the vote. With the 25 percent of voters who went for Dan Mildon, a Kennewick Republican, the red vote was 60 percent.

Francik said she’s feeling optimistic. She ran for the House in 2016, making it to the general election with far fewer primary votes that year.

“As of today, I’m 11.15 percent higher than I was in 2016,” she said. “That’s already a good start.”

Two races, one for the state House and one for the U.S. House, suggest what happens when voters don’t have to choose between rivals from the same party.

In Washington, all races appear on the primary ballot. Those with two or fewer candidates are advisory only and the results are telling.

In the 16th District, Rep. Bill Jenkin, a Prosser Republican, is defending his Position 1 seat against Democratic challenger Everett Maroon. Jenkin received 62 percent of the vote, to Maroon’s 38 percent.

A similar dynamic played out in the 4th Congressional District race, featuring incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse and Democratic challenger Christine Brown, who has been campaigning for about a year.

Newhouse received 63 percent of the vote and Brown, a former Tri-City newscaster, received 37 percent.

The same lopsided pattern emerged in the two 9th District House races.

In the race for Position 1, incumbent Republican Mary Dye was leading Pasco Democrat Jenn Goulet 63 percent to 34 percent. And in Position 2, incumbent Republican Joe Schmick was leading Democrat Matthew Sutherland 60 percent to 40 percent.

Benton County has processed 28,588 ballots and estimates another 12,000 remain to be counted. Results will be updated Thursday afternoon. Franklin County has processed 10,552 ballots and expects update the count Thursday afternoon.

This story was originally published August 8, 2018 at 7:26 PM with the headline "‘Blue wave’ buoys Mid-Columbia Dems, but election math favors Republicans."