Cepeda vs. De la Espriella: Colombia Election Final Polls and Odds

Colombia goes to the polls Sunday in a deeply polarized election that could reshape the country’s relationship with the United States, its approach to Venezuela, and its strategy for tackling drug trafficking and armed groups.

The race has narrowed to two clear front-runners: left-wing senator Ivan Cepeda, the chosen successor to President Gustavo Petro, and hard-right outsider Abelardo De La Espriella, whose rapid rise has become one of the biggest stories in Colombian politics.

Recent polls suggest neither candidate is likely to secure an outright majority, making a June runoff increasingly likely.

What the Polls and Prediction Markets Show

De La Espriella’s rise has been dramatic.

In March 2025, he was polling at just 1.1 percent. By late 2025 he had climbed into double digits, and by early 2026 he was running neck-and-neck with Cepeda.

The latest Invamer survey conducted May 13-20 placed Cepeda first with 44.6 percent support, followed by De La Espriella at 31.6 percent. Paloma Valencia, once considered the leading conservative contender, fell to 14 percent.

Other major polling firms, including Guarumo and CNC, point toward the same likely outcome: a runoff between Cepeda and De La Espriella.

Prediction markets tell a slightly different story.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, De La Espriella has emerged as the favorite to ultimately win the presidency, with both platforms giving him roughly 59 percent odds compared with about 40 percent for Cepeda.

The divergence reflects a key feature of the race: while Cepeda leads first-round polling, many analysts believe De La Espriella could benefit from a consolidation of right-wing votes in a runoff.

Why This Election Matters

For Washington, Colombia remains one of the most strategically important countries in Latin America.

For more than two decades, security cooperation and counternarcotics efforts have anchored the U.S.-Colombia relationship. That relationship has become more strained under Petro, whose government has clashed with Washington over drug policy and regional diplomacy.

“The United States operates a giant embassy in Bogotá and before the last few years, U.S. diplomats enjoyed close cooperation on a range of issues, including security,” Benjamin Gedan of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies told Newsweek.

A victory for De La Espriella would likely produce a rapid warming of relations with President Donald Trump’s administration. A Cepeda victory would largely continue Petro’s foreign-policy approach, potentially extending recent tensions.

Ivan Cepeda: Petro’s Chosen Successor

Cepeda, 56, is a veteran left-wing senator and one of the most recognizable figures in Colombia’s progressive movement.

A member of Petro’s Historic Pact coalition, he has campaigned as the continuity candidate, promising to preserve the administration’s focus on social programs, environmental protections and peace negotiations.

“Cepeda, more disciplined and dogmatic than Petro, would largely represent policy continuity,” Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank told Newsweek.

Unlike Petro, Cepeda is generally viewed as less confrontational and more measured in his public style. But continuity may also be his biggest challenge.

Many Colombians remain frustrated by persistent insecurity, record coca production and slow economic progress. Cepeda has also been forced to defend Petro’s “Paz Total” strategy, which sought simultaneous negotiations with guerrilla groups, criminal organizations and dissident factions.

Critics argue the policy has failed to reduce violence and has allowed armed groups to strengthen their territorial control.

Abelardo De La Espriella: The Outsider Candidate

De La Espriella, 54, is a corporate lawyer with no previous political experience.

Positioning himself as an anti-establishment outsider, he has drawn comparisons to both Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. His campaign has focused heavily on crime, promising tougher security measures, large-scale prison construction and a more confrontational approach toward armed groups.

Calling himself “The Tiger,” De La Espriella has built his campaign around law-and-order themes and a promise to wage what he describes as a “total war” against the left.

“His campaign is built more around emotion than detailed policy proposals,” Shifter said.

His legal career has also generated controversy.

Among his former clients was businessman Alex Saab, who was accused by U.S. prosecutors of laundering money on behalf of the Venezuelan government. Journalistic investigations have also scrutinized financial transactions involving Saab-linked companies during the period when De La Espriella represented him.

De La Espriella has consistently rejected criticism over his legal work, arguing that lawyers have a professional obligation to represent clients regardless of the allegations against them.

What Happened to Paloma Valencia?

Valencia entered the race as the establishment conservative favorite and carried the backing of former President Álvaro Uribe.

But her support steadily eroded as De La Espriella consolidated anti-Petro voters.

What began as a three-way race increasingly became a two-candidate contest, leaving Valencia in a distant third place despite her strong political credentials and national profile.

The Likely Runoff

Most polling points toward a second-round showdown between Cepeda and De La Espriella.

Invamer’s runoff polling showed Cepeda leading De La Espriella by roughly 7 percentage points, 52.4 percent to 45.3 percent.

However, large numbers of undecided and blank-vote respondents suggest the electorate remains fluid.

A runoff would present Colombians with two sharply contrasting choices: a continuation of Petro-era policies under Cepeda or a dramatic shift to the right under De La Espriella.

Petro’s Legacy Looms Over the Vote

Much of Sunday’s election is effectively a referendum on Petro’s presidency.

Supporters point to lower unemployment, declining poverty and labor reforms that expanded worker benefits.

Critics focus on deteriorating security conditions, record coca production and growing concerns about the effectiveness of the government’s peace strategy.

“Petro’s insistence on the deeply flawed Paz Total scheme to negotiate with all criminal groups has led to a surge in coca and cocaine production,” former U.S. Ambassador Kevin Whitaker told Newsweek.

Four years after Petro became Colombia’s first left-wing president in modern history, voters will now decide whether to continue his political project-or chart a very different course.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 31, 2026 at 2:00 AM.