The World's 2 Most Powerful Men Are Set to Meet Again. Here's What to Know.

President Donald Trump and China's leader, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to meet in Beijing this week for a high-stakes summit that could shape the next stage of rivalry between the world's two major powers.

Trump and Xi are expected to discuss the war in Iran, trade, Taiwan and other points of contention during a two-day summit beginning Thursday. Trump and Xi last met in October in South Korea, where they agreed to pause an escalating trade war in which the United States imposed triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threatened to throttle the global supply of rare earths.

The visit this week could determine whether an uneasy detente that has emerged since that meeting will hold.

A lot has changed since the last meeting. Trump is now embroiled in a war with Iran, one of China's closest partners in the Middle East, that has led to a global energy crisis and diverted U.S. military assets from Asia. The war has also depleted U.S. munitions, raising doubts among some Chinese analysts about the ability of the United States to defend Taiwan, a close partner of Washington.

Xi faces his own challenges as he grapples with slower economic growth at home, higher energy prices and the possibility of a global recession that would hurt China's export-reliant economy.

What is on the table?

Trump and Xi will discuss trade, including possible investments, according to senior U.S. officials. Washington has been emphasizing what analysts call the "Five B's." These include Chinese purchases of Boeing airplanes, U.S. beef and soybeans, as well as the creation of a board of investment and a board of trade. Those two entities would carve out areas of economic exchange between the United States and China that do not raise national security concerns.

The Chinese have been emphasizing the "Three T's": tariffs, technology and Taiwan, which Beijing claims is part of China. Beijing is likely to push for an extension of last year's trade truce and the loosening of export controls on advanced semiconductors that China needs to upgrade its industrial sector. Xi, who told Trump by phone in February that his country would "never allow Taiwan to be separated from China," is likely to push Trump to dial back U.S. support for the self-governed island.

Trump is expected to call on Beijing to persuade Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are also expected to discuss cooperation on managing the risks related to artificial intelligence.

Trump has said that he will raise the case of Hong Kong democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who was sentenced in February to 20 years in prison for collusion and sedition. Other issues include the buildup of China's nuclear weapons, security in the South China Sea and reducing flows of fentanyl into the United States.

What are the possible outcomes?

Trump has been boastful about his relationship with Xi, whom he calls "a friend," and is keen to announce an increase in Chinese investment in the United States.

But expectations are not high that the two sides will reach a major economic deal or resolve their deep differences. A more likely outcome is a set of modest agreements on investment and an extension of last year's temporary trade truce.

"We probably shouldn't expect this meeting to have particularly substantial, major breakthroughs," said Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert at Shanghai's Fudan University. U.S. officials have said the two leaders could meet four times this year.

China's vice premier for economic policy, He Lifeng, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are set to meet before the summit.

Analysts say the summit is also a way for both sides to buy themselves time to reduce reliance on the other country. "Within China there is also still a deep sense of suspicion about the United States," said Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

What could go wrong?

Contention over the war in Iran could undermine the talks. Without naming Trump, Xi last month criticized the flouting of international law as a "return to the law of the jungle."

While China is prodding Iranian officials to negotiate with the United States, it has held back from doing more to help resolve a war that Beijing sees as Washington's problem. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, met his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, last week in Beijing. Wang called for greater efforts to open the strait but also said China supported Iran's "legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy."

Both China and the United States have been strengthening their weapons of economic warfare. When the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on a Chinese refinery in April for buying Iranian oil, China ordered its companies not to comply and issued regulations giving authorities powers to investigate foreign companies and governments.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright 2026 The New York Times Company

This story was originally published May 8, 2026 at 9:05 PM.