Zohran Mamdani-Backed Progressive Poised To Defeat Incumbent Democrat-Poll
Brad Lander, whom New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has endorsed, holds a lead over Representative Dan Goldman in the Democratic primary for New York’s 10th Congressional District, according to an Emerson College poll released on Thursday.
The poll underscores how energized New York’s progressive wing remains after Mamdani’s mayoral victory last November and may be a positive sign for his political capital almost six months into his term. The race has become a test of whether left‑leaning candidates can translate grassroots enthusiasm into wins over well‑known incumbents. The outcome will signal how much influence progressives hold in one of the country’s most Democratic districts.
The Lander campaign told Newsweek it is “taking nothing for granted and continuing to run like we’re in the fight of our lives, because we are.”
“We’ve got a fascist in the White House, rogue ICE agents in our streets, and billionaires trying to buy our elections,” it continued. “But around here, neighbors showing up for each other is how we fight back. Brad is going to keep relentlessly organizing alongside them, through the primary on June 23, and far beyond.”
Newsweek also contacted the Goldman campaign for comment via email.
Brad Lander vs. Dan Goldman: What New Poll Shows
Lander, the former New York City comptroller who ran for mayor in the 2025 election, held support from an outright majority of voters in the new Emerson poll, with 57 percent saying they would vote for the progressive challenger over Goldman. The incumbent received 23 percent support in the poll, and 20 percent of respondents were undecided.
The poll surveyed 450 likely voters from May 16-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
It’s rare for incumbents to lose renomination, but some on the left believe Goldman is a poor fit for the progressive district Mamdani won in the 2025 mayoral race over former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Goldman is not viewed as particularly progressive and has drawn scrutiny from some on the left over his support for Israel.
“While all age groups break for Lander, his most significant support comes from voters under 40, who break for Lander over Goldman, 73 percent to 15 percent,” Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, wrote in the polling memo. “Voters over 70 are more split; 38 percent support Lander, while 31 percent support Goldman.”
The district, which comprises parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn, isn’t uniformly progressive. Large swaths of the district-including neighborhoods such as Park Slope, the East Village and Sunset Park-are more so, backing Mamdani over Cuomo. But parts of the district, including Borough Park and areas of downtown Manhattan, are more conservative or centrist.
What Other Polls, Prediction Markets Show About Brad Lander’s Chances
An earlier Schoen Cooperman Research Poll, which surveyed 465 likely voters from May 1-4, showed a tighter race but still gave Lander an advantage. In that poll, 47 percent of respondents said they would back Lander compared to 42 percent for Goldman. It was first reported by City & State.
Lander is favored to win the primary in prediction markets, holding a 94 percent chance on Kalshi and an 88 percent chance on Polymarket of unseating the incumbent.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Mamdani Backs Lander in Contested Primary
The primary is also a test for Mamdani’s political sway and popularity in New York. He has received praise from progressives throughout his short term, but more centrist Democrats and Republicans have been critical of his tenure.
Mamdani has supported Lander’s campaign from the beginning, telling The New York Times in December, “He has been a trusted ally and partner of mine, and I’m proud to support him as I know he’ll continue delivering for those who need government to show up for them the most.”
The pair became allies on the mayoral campaign trail last year, with both occupying the more progressive lane in the race. Lander ultimately encouraged his supporters to rank Mamdani second in the primary election, as the city uses ranked choice voting in its mayoral elections.
Lander and Mamdani appeared together on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert in June 2025, with the former describing their relationship as “remarkable.”
“There is something quite remarkable about a Jewish New Yorker and a Muslim New Yorker coming together to say, ‘Here’s how we protect all New Yorkers,'” Lander said.
He placed third in the primary, behind Cuomo, while Mamdani won the primary and general election. Mamdani’s victory has been a massive win for the political left, as he is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and ran on progressive policies, including making buses fare-free and establishing city-run grocery stores.
The upcoming primaries will be another test for the city’s progressive left.
Who Is Supporting Brad Lander and Dan Goldman?
The race has drawn endorsements from prominent Democrats from both the party’s progressive and centrist wing.
Supporting Brad Lander:
- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani
- U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont
- U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
- The Working Families Party
- New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams
Supporting Dan Goldman:
- New York Governor Kathy Hochul
- U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
- U.S. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark
- Chair of the House Democratic Caucus Pete Aguilar
- New York City Comptroller Mark Levine
Mamdani-Backed Candidate Leads NY-07 Primary
The poll also found that state Representative Claire Valdez, whom Mamdani has endorsed, led the Democratic primary for New York’s 7th Congressional District. Incumbent U.S. Representative Nydia Velázquez has served in Congress since 1993 and is not seeking reelection. The district is viewed as among the most progressive in the country and contains parts of the city’s “Commie Corridor.”
Valdez held 23 percent support in the poll, compared to Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso’s 21 percent, New York City Councilmember Julie Won’s 13 percent and attorney Vichal Kumar’s 1 percent. With the primary weeks away, 43 percent were undecided.
Left Hopes 2026 Will Be Democrats’ Tea Party Moment
The 2026 Democratic primaries present opportunities for the left to gain ground over the Democratic establishment, with socialists such as Sanders and U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York endorsing a slate of progressive Democrats across the country.
Progressives scored a major victory this week after Pennsylvania Representative Chris Rabb, whom Ocasio-Cortez and the DSA backed, defeated more moderate Democrats in a Philadelphia congressional primary. Ocasio-Cortez touted him as a candidate who would help to change the Democratic Party.
Upcoming primaries in states such as California, Maine, Michigan, New York and Colorado are set to gauge whether Democratic voters are ready to move on from longtime incumbents in favor of more progressive leadership in the Trump 2.0 era.
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This story was originally published May 21, 2026 at 9:28 AM.