The 10 most vulnerable House members, less than 6 months from Election Day

WASHINGTON - When Texas Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last summer to give their party additional pickup opportunities, it set off a back-and-forth with both parties revisiting district lines in several states.

The battle turbocharged last month, when the Supreme Court invalidated Louisiana's map and significantly limited the use of race in drawing congressional districts, setting off a scramble among Republican-led Southern states to redraw their maps ahead of this fall's elections.

With a little under six months to go until the midterm elections, redistricting has reshaped the fight for the House majority - and CQ Roll Call's list of the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents.

The most vulnerable incumbent on our latest list is Missouri Democrat Emanuel Cleaver II. State Republicans redrew his Kansas City-anchored seat last fall, but he remained off our November list as legal challenges to the map worked through the court system. But the state Supreme Court last week cleared the way for the new map to be used, although a fall referendum on the new lines remains on the table.

Former Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, whose district was redrawn after California voters approved a new map last year and who changed his party affiliation to independent as he seeks reelection, is also a new entrant on our latest list.

Democratic Rep. Darren Soto moves onto the list after GOP-led redistricting made his Central Florida district more challenging. Democrats Don Davis of North Carolina and Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, neither a stranger to battleground races, also saw their seats become redder during redistricting last year.

Redistricting could still imperil more Democrats. Alabama Rep. Shomari Figures remains off the latest list as a federal court reconsiders the 2023 congressional map drawn by Republicans, with a hearing scheduled for Friday, even after the Supreme Court lifted an injunction against that map. Republican state officials hope to use that map this year and have made plans to move ahead with special primary elections for four House seats in August.

Louisiana Rep. Cleo Fields and South Carolina Rep. James E. Clyburn could also see their paths to reelection get more difficult as legislators in their states move forward with redistricting.

Redistricting has also set up two member-versus-member races, which we don't include in our rankings but will inevitably lead to an incumbent losing. In Texas, Rep. Christian Menefee, who won a special election to the House earlier this year, is in a runoff next week against longtime Rep. Al Green, with the two Democrats seeking the same Houston-based district. And in California, GOP Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are facing off in a tense post-redistricting primary for the 40th District.

But while Republicans have gained an advantage through redistricting, the overall political environment remains challenging for the GOP. The war with Iran, which polls show to be unpopular with voters, continues, with gas prices remaining high. President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a second-term low and questions remain about whether the coalitions Republicans built in the 2024 elections will stick with the party this year.

GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Gabe Evans, Ryan Mackenzie and Juan Ciscomani, who all face tough battleground races, remain on the list.

Several members are also vulnerable to primary challenges. GOP Reps. Daniel Crenshaw of Texas and Thomas Massie of Kentucky have already lost renomination in primaries. New York Democrat Dan Goldman, who faces a primary challenge from former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, joins the list as he fights for his job in a June primary. Other Democrats fighting for their political lives in the face of intraparty challenges include California's Doris Matsui and Connecticut's John B. Larson.

To compile this list, CQ Roll Call's campaign team relied on interviews with party insiders, district dynamics, past results, candidates' campaign finances, race ratings by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and district-level presidential performance, as calculated by Inside Elections. We only looked at incumbents and not at open seats, which could also flip and affect party control.

Among the open seats, Maine Rep. Jared Golden's surprise retirement announcement last fall gives Republicans a pickup opportunity, while Democrats are hopeful that Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon's retirement will finally give them a chance to flip his Omaha-based seat. Republican Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial run has also opened up a competitive seat in Arizona.

1. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II, D-Mo.

Cleaver was an early target of redistricting, when his Kansas City-based district was split up and redrawn into one that Trump would have carried by a margin that could prove tough to overcome. A United Methodist minister, Cleaver has spent over two decades in Congress since his first election in 2004 and before that was the first Black mayor of Kansas City. Cleaver has consistently said he'll seek reelection under the new lines, which add several more rural counties to his 5th District. Cleaver ended March with over $1 million on hand. Republicans who've joined the race for the redrawn seat include former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, who is partially self-funding his campaign, state Sen. Rick Brattin and attorney Brett Hueffmeier.

2. Kevin Kiley, I-Calif.

Kiley's political career became endangered when California voters approved a new congressional map last fall that turned his rural 3rd District seat into a pickup opportunity for Democrats. Kiley pivoted to the 6th District in the Sacramento area, which also favors Democrats, though less decisively than the new 3rd. Kiley has since ditched his Republican label to become an independent, though he still caucuses with his former party. He faces a crowd of Democrats in the June 2 nonpartisan primary, including former state Sen. Richard Pan, Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero and Planned Parenthood official Lauren Babb Tomlinson. The top two vote-getters will advance to November.

3. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa

Democrats are approaching the midterms in Iowa with guarded optimism, predicting that rising gas and diesel costs related to the war in Iran and the negative impact of Trump's tariff policy on the state's all-important agriculture sector will hurt Republicans. They're hopeful this will be the year that Miller-Meeks is dislodged from her battleground district in eastern Iowa. A veteran of a couple of exceptionally close elections, the congresswoman is expected to face Democrat Christina Bohannan, whom she defeated by 799 votes in 2024. Both candidates, who each have to get past primary challengers, have been prolific fundraisers this cycle. Miller-Meeks ended March with $4.3 million banked while Bohannan had $4 million.

4. Gabe Evans, R-Colo.

Reaching from Denver's northern suburbs to Greeley, this swing district was created after the 2020 census, and Evans is just the second person to hold it. Democrats believe the seat is flippable, citing cost of living concerns among the largely working class electorate. The district is also 40 percent Latino, a demographic that national polls suggest has been trending away from the GOP this cycle. But Democrats are contending with a contentious primary battle between progressive state Rep. Manny Rutinel and center-left former state Rep. Shannon Bird, with veteran Evan Munsing also in the race. Evans had the most money banked as of late March, with $3.4 million; both Rutinel and Bird had less than $2 million.

5. Don Davis, D-N.C.

Republicans in the state legislature have twice recast the boundaries of Davis' northeastern North Carolina district since he was first elected in 2022. The latest redraw last fall shifted the district lines south toward the coast and carved out a significant portion of the Black population. Davis has a moderate voting record, breaking with his party on legislation relating to transgender rights and immigration. He faces a rematch with the winner of the March Republican primary, retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who narrowly lost to Davis in 2024. As of late March, Davis had $2.9 million banked, to Buckhout's $1.5 million.

6. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa.

Mackenzie is set to face Democrat Bob Brooks, a union leader and retired firefighter, this November. Brooks emerged from a four-way primary with more than 40 percent of the vote this week. Democrats are optimistic about his appeal as a working-class candidate, and he has consolidated support from across the party spectrum, from progressives to Blue Dogs. Mackenzie built up a $2.6 million war chest through the end of April, while Brooks, who had to compete in the primary, finished the month with $252,000. Republicans say Mackenzie has done a good job in his first year and half in Congress building on his brand as a former state representative. The Lehigh Valley-area race will be among the most closely watched races in a state that could determine the House majority this fall.

7. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz.

The district, situated in the state's southeastern corner, has emerged as a key House battleground. Ciscomani twice prevailed over former state Sen. Kirsten Engel, but this year he faces a new opponent: Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza, a prolific fundraiser with a working-class background. Mendoza had $3.5 million on hand at the start of April; Ciscomani had $3.8 million. The first naturalized citizen born in Mexico elected to the House from Arizona, Ciscomani focused heavily on border security in his 2024 run. Mendoza, who has the backing of EMILY's List and the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has emphasized cost-of-living concerns.

8. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio

First elected to the House during Ronald Reagan's first term, Kaptur is a moderate Democrat with a populist streak. She's also a political survivor who's weathered red waves before. But at 79, she faces one of the toughest battles of her political career, in a redrawn Northwest Ohio seat that Trump would have carried by double digits. The November race is a rematch with Republican Derek Merrin, a former state legislator who prevailed over a crowded primary field earlier this month that also included state Rep. Josh Williams and former Immigration and Customs Enforcement deputy director Madison Sheahan. Kaptur had $3.1 million on hand as of April 15, compared with $270,000 for Merrin.

9. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.

Goldman, who rose to political prominence as Democrats' lead counsel during the first Trump impeachment, faces a stiff primary challenge from Brad Lander for his Manhattan and Brooklyn district in a race where Democratic disagreements over Israel and immigration policies have been a focal point. City & State New York reported this month that a poll touted by a super PAC supporting Goldman found him trailing Lander, 47 percent to 42 percent, but showed he still had a path to victory. Lander has support from New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressive groups, while Goldman has touted nearly 20 labor endorsements and the support of Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is also up for reelection. Goldman ended March with $1.5 million on hand, while Lander had $663,000 banked.

10. Darren Soto, D-Fla.

Democrats added Soto to their Frontline program for vulnerable incumbents after his district was heavily impacted by Florida's new Republican-drawn House map. While Soto has previously been on the periphery of the House battleground, he'll face a new challenge this fall in a Republican-leaning district with a smaller Hispanic population. While Florida has undoubtedly shifted to the right in recent years, Democrats have been bolstered by their overperformances there in recent special elections. Also pending are legal challenges to the new map, which Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law earlier this month. A DeSantis-appointed county judge is expected to rule on a trio of challenges to the map after a hearing last week.

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