Republicans' Chances of Losing Iowa to Democrats, According to Polls

Democrats are in striking distance of flipping Iowa's Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll from Democratic pollster GBAO on behalf of a center-left group, ModSquad.

The new poll, reported by Politico, gave Republican Representative Ashley Hinson narrow leads over Democratic candidates state Representative Josh Turek and state Senator Zach Wahls, in the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. On the initial ballot, Hinson led Turek by 4 and Wahls by 3 points. The two Democrats are competing for party nomination in the primary on June 2.

Iowa's Senate race is viewed as a potential target for Democrats in the midterm elections as they hope to win a majority. The poll underscores the potentially competitive nature of the race.

Newsweek reached out to the Hinson, Turek and Wahls campaigns for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Democrats are hoping to win control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. But doing so requires the party to win in more conservative territories such as Iowa, a former battleground that has shifted rightward over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump in each of his three presidential bids. Democrats hope a favorable national environment, fueled by the president's declining approval rating, could make the race competitive in November.

What to Know

The GBAO poll gave Hinson, who represents Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, a modest lead over two Democratic candidates.

Hinson received 47 percent support in a matchup against Turek, who received 43 percent support on the initial ballot. She also received 47 percent support against Wahls, who received 44 percent support on the initial ballot, according to the poll.

The polling memo states that the "changing political landscape" puts Iowa's Senate seat in play.

"Democrats outperform party identification in the generic congressional ballot; Trump and Iowa Republicans are unpopular; and Democrat Rob Sand holds a strong lead in the race for governor," the memo reads.

It notes that Democrats are also trailing on the generic ballot by 2 points (46 percent to 44 percent) despite an 11-point party ID deficit among respondents. Trump is also underwater, with 50 percent of respondents viewing him unfavorably and 45 percent viewing him favorably in Iowa, according to the survey.

The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from March 10-16, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent. It was sponsored by ModSquad, a group supporting moderate Democratic candidates, reported Politico.

What Do Other Polls Show About Iowa Senate Race?

Polling in Iowa has been limited so far, but another Democratic poll from Change Research also gave Hinson a lead. That poll, which surveyed 1,108 likely voters from January 8-11, showed Hinson up 3 points against both Turek and Wahls, receiving 44 percent to their 41 percent, according to The New York Times.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket's prediction markets gave Republicans a 61 percent chance of winning as of Wednesday morning.

Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Republican.

Iowa Voting History

Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s but has shifted toward Republicans recently. Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024, 8 points in 2020 and just under 10 points in 2016. However, former President Barack Obama carried the state by nearly 6 points in 2012 and nearly 10 points in 2008.

Ernst last won reelection in 2020, defeating Democrat Theresa Greenfield by nearly 7 points.

Democrats' Challenging Senate Math

Democrats are facing a difficult map in the Senate race this year. Even as they are more optimistic about their chances in the House of Representatives, the Senate is viewed as a much heavier lift.

Republican-held seats in Maine, which generally leans Democratic, and North Carolina, a swing state Trump won by roughly 3 points in 2024, are Democrats' top two targets. Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to flip Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Michigan, both of which narrowly backed Trump in 2024.

Newsweek's reporters and editors used Martyn, our Al assistant, to help produce this story. Learn more about Martyn.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published April 15, 2026 at 10:01 AM.