Republicans, weirdly, might be feeling Eric Swalwell's pain

LOS ANGELES - The two Republicans vying to be the next California governor have for weeks been in the unlikely position of leading the polls to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom in one of the nation's bluest states. But that may change quickly now that Rep. Eric Swalwell has exited the race.

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco only have a shot of winning if as many prominent Democrats as possible remain on the June 2 primary ballot. That way, the state's substantial liberal voting base gets diluted among a platoon of Democratic hopefuls, pushing the two conservatives into the November runoff.

As the putative front-runner in a large Democratic field, Swalwell bolstered that equation. But now, his exit muddles it. Don't be shocked if some wealthy Republican mounts an "independent expenditure" campaign (with, importantly, no spending limits) to bolster at least one of the GOP's two mainstays. Because, if just one Democrat emerges from the June 2 primary to make the runoff, either Republican challenger would be toast in November.

What led to Swalwell's departure

Swalwell "suspended" (a.k.a. killed) his campaign after several former employees from his House office accused him of sexual harassment and assault. On Monday, he pledged to resign his seat in Congress, representing a district in the southeast San Francisco Bay Area. He now could be fending off criminal charges.

So who benefits politically?

Not the two Republicans who led recent polls, with support of well under 20% of voters each. Bianco and Hilton have managed to lead mostly because the Democrats had split their votes among eight prominent candidates - Swalwell, billionaire entrepreneur Tom Steyer, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San José Mayor Matt Mahan, former state Controller Betty Yee and Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Porter stands the best chance of collecting former Swalwell supporters. That's because she's in the same political lane as her former House colleague: a fixture on MSN and other lefty outlets, where she thrills partisans with her rhetorical evisceration of President Donald Trump.

Paving the way for California's first woman governor?

Porter, an outspoken feminist, also stands in a good position to draw in women defecting Swalwell-land. It seems likely that tales of Swalwell forcing himself on his young female employees will make some of those voters determined to pick a distinctly un-male candidate.

That could pave the way for Porter, 52, to become California's first female governor. Yee could also win that distinction. But the former controller, despite her air of competence and decency, hasn't been able to attract support above the low single digits.

The 68-year-old Steyer's wealth has enabled him to pay for, by far, the greatest advertising presence on television. Some voters like his pledge as a political newcomer to throttle the status quo. But the California electorate has repeatedly rejected uber-rich candidates who have no history in elected office.

"Both Porter and Steyer also have significant biographical weaknesses, and it's easy to see how donors and party leaders might be nervous about either one of them," said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at USC and UC Berkeley. Porter's biggest negative came out last year with revelations about her verbally abusing staff members, including one incident caught on video.

If Democrats want to go with a more centrist approach, they might turn to Mahan or Villaraigosa, Schnur said, or look to others who have languished in the polls.

Another factor worth watching as the June primary grows ever closer: Do Swalwell's big political assets - namely donation and endorsements - move to another candidate? Endorsements from U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff and two powerful unions - the Service Employees International Union and the California Teachers Association - could tip the balance in a race that has remained extremely tight.

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This story was originally published April 14, 2026 at 10:07 AM.