How the Tri-Cities could lose $240 million. It all has to do with the upcoming census

The Tri-Cities stands to lose tens of millions of dollars in federal and other funding if fears of a massive undercount materializes in the 2020 Census.

The U.S. Supreme Court temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s plan to add a citizenship question to the decennial census on Thursday, calling its explanation “contrived.” It referred the case back to a federal district court in New York.

The 5-4 ruling does little to allay fears that a staggering 40 percent of Mid-Columbia residents won’t be counted.

With a population of about 300,000, the region could miss out on as much as $240 million in federal funding per year, or $2,000 per person, said LoAnn Ayers, president and CEO of United Way of Benton & Franklin Counties.

The citizenship question could lead residents to avoid the census. But that’s only one cause of a potential undercount.

The Census traditionally undercounts young children and minorities, including Latinos, Asians, African Americans, American Indians, Hawaiian Natives, Pacific Islanders and Alaska Natives.

Frequent movers, people living in group homes and the homeless are hard to count, as are the roughly 25 percent of people who receive a census questionnaire but don’t complete it without prompting from census workers.

“This goes beyond the citizenship question. That just adds fuel to the fire,” Ayers said.

Vortex of badness

Ayers is spearheading Tri-Cities Counts to educate area residents about the importance of participating in the census.

The group is in its infancy, but its mission will include reaching out to residents who fear information they provide will be used against them.

The Census Bureau is barred by law from sharing individual information.

Ayers said the 40 percent estimate is based in part on historic rates of Tri-Citians not voluntarily completing the census. Roughly a quarter of Tri-Citians did not complete the 2010 census on their own.

A growing Latino population, the national focus on immigration, distrust in government, the 2020 presidential election and migrating the census to the internet could all drive up the number of non responses.

“It’s a vortex of badness,” she said.

There’s no question the Tri-Cities receives an outsized share of the federal purse. The $3 billion in federal funding directed to the Department of Energy for the Hanford cleanup and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is not what’s at stake.

The census count helps determine how federal funds from 55 major spending programs get distributed to states, communities and households annually. In 2016, those funds totaled around $883 billion.

$13.7 billion spent in Washington

Gov. Jay Inslee’s office estimates it guides $13.7 billion to Washington each year.

Every household that is not counted costs the state an average of $4,800. The impact goes beyond federal spending. Census counts influence state funding and foundation grants too, Inslee’s office noted.

The Washington Office of Financial Management says the 2010 census showing nearly 6.6 million people was accurate to within one-tenth of one percent, or an overcount of nearly 7,000.

The same figures show an estimated 1 percent undercount in Benton County, representing 1,800 people.

Comparable figures weren’t available for Franklin County.

Ayers said federal dollars touch every Tri-Citian, regardless of age, socioeconomic status or race.

The National School Lunch Program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Medicaid, Medicare Part B, child care subsidies, housing subsidies, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, Head Start, special education, Pell Grants and Low Income Home Energy Assistance rely on federal funds.

“(Hanford funding) does nothing for Head Start,” Ayers said. “It does nothing for free lunch or Pell Grants. As a community that pays taxes, we deserve to get funded. We deserve safe roads and bridges.”

Tri-Cities Counts received a $40,000 grant from Philanthropy Northwest’s Washington Census Equity Fund to support work to encourage residents to stand up and be counted.

Philanthropy Northwest is a network of nonprofits serving Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Wyoming that has focused on promoting an accurate 2020 Census count as an equity issue.

It projects only 55 percent of residents will fill out the census questionnaire without prompting, a sign of decreasing trust in the government and fears about the citizenship question.

The citizenship question

The Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling temporarily blocks the Trump administration’s move to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census. It sent the matter back to a lower court for review without outright rejecting the question.

The Washington Post reported that the president has asked lawyers if the 2020 census can be delayed so it can explain its rationale for the citizenship question.

Inslee, who is seeking the Democratic party’s nomination for president, cautioned that the court’s decision could merely be a setback.

“Our aggressive effort to ensure a complete count in Washington state will continue. We will not let the Trump administration succeed in using this fight to discourage people from participating in an effort that has profound political and fiscal implications for the next decade,” he said

The state has launched its own version of Tri-Cities Counts to promote the value of completing the census to all of Washington’s 7.4 million residents, including 1 million who were born outside the U.S. or its territories, according to 2017 population estimates.

Immigrants in the Tri-Cities

The 1 million foreign-born Washington residents included 507,000 naturalized citizens and 522,640 non-citizens, according to 2017 American Community Survey one-year estimates. ACS is the census bureau’s annual survey asking select participants detailed information that goes beyond the constitutionally mandated decennial census.

It does not distinguish if foreign-born residents entered the country legally.

The Mid-Columbia population totaled about 290,000 in 2017, including 13,104 naturalized citizens and 28,800 non-citizens.

Latin America was the leading region of origin for naturalized citizens and for non-citizens in the Tri-Cities.

This story used information reported by Emily Cadei in the McClatchy Washington, D.C. , bureau and by Phillip Reese and Tony Bizjak of the Sacramento Bee, a sister publication to the Tri-City Herald.

This story was originally published June 27, 2019 at 6:04 PM.