Franklin COVID case drop stalls without meeting rate needed for school reopening

The lower number of new COVID-19 cases being reported in Benton County continues to look promising for the reopening of Richland and Kennewick public schools in October.

But public health officials are watching the number of new cases in Franklin County closely as the decline there appears to be plateauing, said Dr. Amy Person, health officer at the Benton Franklin Health District.

There are several ways to count new cases and she is focusing on the most optimistic count — the preliminary number of new cases per 100,000 population reported over two weeks based on when symptoms were first noticed.

The Washington state Department of Health waits two weeks to confirm the case rate to make sure most cases have been reported.

The state reports 119 new cases per 100,000 over two weeks ending Sept. 5 in Benton County and 204 new cases per 100,000 people in Franklin County.

But looking at numbers of cases backdated to when symptoms occurred for the two weeks through Sept. 10, Benton County has had 75 to 79 cases over two weeks, Dr. Person said.

That should include 90% of the total cases, with some yet to be reported, she said.

The numbers reported through Sept. 10 give her confidence that the rate of new cases in Benton County should be below 75 per 100,000 by the start of October. That’s the target set by the Washington state Department of Health, she said.

“That’s what gave me confidence for schools to begin planning for transition to hybrid learning models as early as October,” she said.

However, the Franklin County cases have been running 150 to 182 toward the end of the same period.

“We will continue to monitor the situation as their case counts and disease activity has traditionally been higher than what we have seen in Benton County,” Dr. Person said. “It is important to recognize that since the beginning of July disease activity in Franklin County has dropped four fold.”

That shows that it is possible that four weeks from now on Oct. 15, new cases in Franklin County could meet the state target, she said.

However, a continued drop in new cases would be needed.

Outlook for new cases

Dr. Person remains concerned that a spike in local cases from Labor Day weekend could be coming. She expects to see that next week, if it occurs.

However, positive test results could be lower than expected over the weekend because the drive-thru testing site at the HAPO Center in Pasco closed early Friday because of the smoky air and did not reopen until Thursday.

New cases are reported to the Benton Franklin Health District after positive test results are received, creating a lag time of several days after samples are collected tor testing.

The HAPO Center testing center averaged 140 samples collected a day last week, even after closing early on Friday.

The samples collected there amount to more than half the testing done in the two counties. With samples collected at clinics and other sites, an average total of 230 people were tested a day last week, said Rick Dawson, a senior manager at the local health district.

New cases may also be diminished because people have been staying home during the days that thick smoke clouded Tri-Cities air, which began on Friday, Sept. 11.

New information from the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., shows that even when 110 cases per 100,000 are reported over two weeks, schools with good safety practices can reopen without a significant increase in new cases in the community, Dr. Person said.

When students do return to school there may be more new cases in the community, likely in part because their parents return to work, she said.

Tri-Cities cases, hospitalizations

The Washington state Department of Health initially reported just seven people where hospitalized locally on Thursday for treatment of COVID-19, a sharp drop even from the start of the month when hospitals in the Tri-Cities area were treating 33 COVID patients.

However, on Friday it told the local health district that there appeared to be a problem with hospital data reported on Thursday and the number is almost certainly incorrect.

On Tuesday 23 patients were hospitalized locally for COVID-19 treatment.

The Benton Franklin Health district reported 19 new cases on Thursday in Benton and Franklin counties, which is very close to numbers reported the past two days.

The new cases reported based on positive test results on Thursday include 13 in Benton County and six in Franklin county.

They bring total cases in Benton County to 4,374 and total cases in Franklin County to 4,147.

There were no new deaths reported on Thursday.

The two counties have lost 163 people to COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. They include 114 people living in Benton County and 49 in Franklin County.

Washington state

The Washington state Department of Health on Wednesday reported 347 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and five deaths.

Statewide totals from the illness caused by the coronavirus are at 80,812 cases and 2,020 deaths, up from 80,465 cases and 2,015 Tuesday. Washington’s population is estimated at about 7.6 million, according to U.S. Census figures from July 2019.

Twenty-two people with confirmed COVID-19 cases were admitted to Washington state hospitals on Aug. 28, the most recent date with complete data. Late March had two days with 88 people admitted, the highest numbers to date during the pandemic.

King County continues to have the highest numbers in Washington, with 21,049 cases and 749 deaths. Yakima County is second, with 11,194 cases and 253 deaths. Pierce is third with cases at 7,395 and 190 deaths.

Benton and Franklin rank sixth and seventh in total cases, following Snohomish and Spokane counties.

All counties in Washington have cases. Eleven counties have case counts of fewer than 100.

On Wednesday, Washington had a 1,068-per-100,000-people case rate. The national rate is 1,986, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Louisiana has the highest rate in the United States at 3,418. Vermont is lowest at 272.

There had been more than 6.62 million confirmed coronavirus cases and 196,485 deaths from the virus in the United States as of Wednesday evening, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The United States has the highest number of reported cases and deaths of any nation. More than 937,000 people have died from the disease worldwide. Global cases exceed 29 million.

Craig Sailor, The (Tacoma) News Tribune, contributed to this report.

This story was originally published September 17, 2020 at 2:11 PM.