UW model predicts thousands more COVID-19 deaths nationwide as restrictions ease
An influential model predicting outcomes of COVID-19 cases in terms of peaks and deaths updated its numbers Monday to reflect an upwardly moving death toll for the nation.
In an update posted Monday, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent health research center at the University of Washington, wrote, “We, collectively, are now entering a new phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Our updated modeling approach indicates that the US appears to be in a prolonged epidemic peak, averaging near or over 2,000 predicted COVID-19 deaths a day for the last few weeks.”
As a result, building on its projections in recent weeks, the institute now estimates a “projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August.”
The projections are an increase of 62,042 from its April 29 projections..
According to IHME: “These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics.”
“More locations are easing previously implemented social distancing policies, and human mobility patterns are trending upward — even in places where distancing measures remain in place,” the institute noted.
“Testing has scaled up in many parts of the world, but such progress has been uneven and is not keeping pace with the growing demand for lifting business and gathering restrictions. Carefully tracking what is happening today as locations move to ‘re-open’ will provide vital information for potential COVID-19 trajectories in the coming weeks and months.”
It still estimates five states — New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Michigan — will have the highest cumulative COVID-19 death toll through August.
It also revised its death toll estimates for seven additional states: Indiana, Illinois, Georgia, California, Texas, Florida and Alabama.
IHME said the revisions are in part because “most of these states are currently experiencing or have yet to experience their epidemic peaks — all of which appear to be lasting longer and declining more slowly after their peaks.”
For Washington state, the institute is projecting a total of 1,159 deaths by June 28. That’s down from its prediction in late March of 1,429 COVID-19 deaths statewide by July.
IHME has called for a later “reopening” date for Washington state, or when it deemed it safe to relax social distancing measures amid the coronavirus. Before Monday’s update, it had moved the date to early June.
Last week it projected that after May 30 would be a safe time, after an original assessment of May 18.
This story was originally published May 4, 2020 at 3:38 PM with the headline "UW model predicts thousands more COVID-19 deaths nationwide as restrictions ease."
