Mr. Movie expects no surprises for 2016 Oscars

Many black stars and Caucasian sympathizers are going to boycott the Oscars because of the lack of recognition by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for the acting, directing, writing and filmmaking chops of minorities.

Straight Outta Compton is the only minority-based film to get any recognition, and it received a nod for best screenplay. The director, writers and a couple of the film’s stars have a reason to complain, but none of the other films released last year featuring minority actors, writers, etc. — including Will Smith and Concussion — do.

But ignoring minority contributions to movies is not the real problem. Actress and talk show host Whoopi Goldberg understood this when the controversy first hit. She said it’s a lack of parts. For years I’ve pointed out that blacks, or those of Latin descent, are too-often cast as gangbangers, thugs or criminals. Or they’re — like squeaky-voiced Kevin Hart or other black or Latino actors — cast in stupid romantic comedies.

Not award material at all.

Often, characters in movies — at least according to most scripts — are race neutral. Taking that into account, more blacks and Latinos could be cast in better, deeper roles. That’s a production decision, and maybe that will change because of this so-called controversy.

Here’s an even deeper problem: Because of this year’s emphasis on race, we will likely get nominations that aren’t deserved. Oscar telecast host Ellen DeGeneres — maybe unintentionally — put my point in perspective in her opening statement in a March 2014 show. She welcomed the audience to the 86th Academy Awards telecast saying “12 Years a Slave wins best picture or you’re all racists.”

It — in the opinion of many — wasn’t the best movie of 2013. Gravity, The Wolf of Wall Street, America Hustle and Nebraska were better. Many think the movie won because of race.

This controversy also points to how out of touch Hollywood is with reality. A better judge of the quality of movies — and I hate to say it — is a broadcast like The People’s Choice Awards. That is where reality meets the movies. But this is Hollywood honoring Hollywood. It’s their party, and this particular party will be the dullest — nominee-wise — since DeGeneres played host.

Expect zero surprises.

Best picture: The Revenant easily takes home the prize over last year’s real best picture and my pick, Spotlight. I also loved the recession-explainer The Big Short for its creativity.

Best Director: Though last year’s Birdman was a more creative flick, Alejandro Gonzáles Iñárritu walks away with his second best director prize in a row. I’d go with Tom McCarthy for Spotlight, but Iñárritu is not a bad choice.

Best Actor: After a couple of decades of brilliant work, Leonardo DiCaprio grabs a best actor Oscar. Ironically, it’s for one of his least impressive performances. By far the best work in the category, and my pick, is Bryan Cranston for Trumbo. A close second is Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs.

Best Actress: Brie Larson has picked up all the awards in this category everywhere else, so why not here too. Her work in Room is exceptional, and with a category full of so-so acting, she’s a shoo-in. The best work — and this should have been a best actor and not supporting actor pick — is Rooney Mara’s deer-in-headlights performance in Carol.

Best Supporting Actor: It’s impossible not to see Sylvester Stallone as Oscar’s pick. His character Rocky is one of the most beloved in movie history, and while I almost always find the Rocky films so-so, I can’t wait to see them because of Stallone. The actual best acting in the category is Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies.

Best Supporting Actress: The deepest of the four acting categories is the toughest to call. Oddsmakers favor Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl, and I’ll go with that. My pick is Mara’s performance in Carol.

I didn’t see all of the animated films or the foreign films, and can’t make a pick in either category.

This story was originally published February 24, 2016 at 5:51 PM with the headline "Mr. Movie expects no surprises for 2016 Oscars."