2026 Tony Awards Predictions: Broadway Shows and Stars Who Should Win Each Category

By Jessica Sager Parade - Entertainment Stories

Updated June 6, 2026 6:19 AM

The 2026 Tony Awards honor the best and brightest on Broadway - and we have all our winner predictions right here for the big night.

Financially, it hasn't been a great season for the Great White Way (or, let's be real, anyone who doesn't profit from war or insider trading), with many of the shows nominated for the 2026 Tonys already closing. Still, that doesn't mean the shows, stars and stage crews nominated are any less worthy of their flowers and trophies just because the economy tanked ticket sales for a lot of productions.

From the ravishing Ragtime revival to the dark, sexy and scaryThe Lost Boys to the meta stuck-in-a-musical-about-musicals Schmigadoon! to the celebration of queer culture in Cats: The Jellicle Ball and the somber, stellar Death of a Salesman and the unsung dramas like Bug, here are the shows and stars we think will take home Tony Awards this Sunday. Do you agree with our predictions? Sound off in the comments.

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2026 Tony Awards Predictions

Best Play Winner Prediction

Liberation

Liberation, an examination of second wave feminism set in the 1970s, already won the Drama League Award for Outstanding Production of a Play as well as the Pulitzer Prize for Drama for 2026, making it an almost surefire bet to take the Best Play trophy at the 2026 Tony Awards.

Best Musical

The Lost Boys

The 2026 Best Musical race is narrower than usual, with only six new musicals opening for the season. That said, The Lost Boys, a stage adaptation of the beloved 1987 Joel Schumacherhorror film, looks likely to take the Tony Award this year. With its combination of spectacle, super-catchy songs and nostalgia-plus a lot of hype in general-it may well triumph over another reported Tony voter favorite, Schmigadoon!, which is a musical set in a musical, based on the short-lived Apple TV series of the same name.

Best Revival of a Play

Death of a Salesman

Death of a Salesman is pretty much a lock for the 2026 Tony Award for Best Revival of a Play. This is in part thanks to its stellar cast, the leads of which-Nathan Lane, Christopher Abbott and Laurie Metcalf-are each nominated in their own stacked races.

Best Revival of a Musical

Ragtime

Ragtime is likely to win Best Revival of a Play, in part because it's so loyal to the original-and it being a top seller of the season likely doesn't hurt its chances, either.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

John Lithgow, Giant

While Liberation will likely eclipse Giant for Best Play, John Lithgow is likely to take home the Best Performance by a Leading Actor in 2026. Lithgow delivers an appropriately gigantic performance as Roald Dahl, having already won the Dorian and Drama Desk Awards for his nuanced portrayal of the beloved children's author coping with accusations of anti-semitism for criticizing actions of the Israeli government.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Lesley Manville, Oedipus

Lesley Manville is a favorite for Best Leading Actress in a Play for the 2026 Tonys for her devastating turn as Jocasta in Oedipus, opposite Mark Strong in the title role.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

Joshua Henry, Ragtime

Joshua Henry is likely to win Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical for his star turn as Coalhouse Walker, Jr., in Ragtime. Why? First, he's just that good. Second, he has cleaned up in the awards leading up to the Tonys, racking up a Dorian Award, Drama Desk Award, Outer Critics Circle Award, Drama League Award and a Broadway.com Audience Choice Award (and counting).

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Having already won a Drama Desk Award and an honor from the Drama League for her role, Caissie Levy is considered pretty much a shoe-in for the Leading Actress in a Musical category for her playing Mother in the Ragtime revival.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

Alden Ehrenreichis just so deliciously wicked (and a smidgen campy) as Max in Becky Shaw that it'd be a sin for him not take this one home (though Christopher Abbott sweeping in for Death of a Salesman wouldn't be shocking, either).

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman

Pretty much the only thing keeping Laurie Metcalf from taking home the Best Featured Actress in a Play Tony is the fact that some may consider her role of Linda Loman in Death of a Salesman to be a lead, not a feature.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Cats: The Jellicle Ball, a reimagined, queer take on the long-running musical, is good enough to fade most of the scars inflicted by the 2019 film adaptation of Cats, but perhaps not quite as critically acclaimed as others in the running for Best Musical Revival. However, André De Shields as Old Deuteronomy is an absolute revelation.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

In the film The Lost Boys, Dianne Wiest's matriarch is the damsel for her sons and their pals to save. In the Broadway adaptation, however, she's more more heroic thanks to Shoshana Bean's powerhouse pipes, particularly on "Wild."

Best Direction of a Play

Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman

Sure, with a cast this good Joe Mantello likely didn't need to work hard-but he did, and the results are astounding.

Best Direction of a Musical

Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

The Jellicle Ball feels like a celebration, a reinvention and a spectacle, all of which the world (and the LGBTQ+ community especially) needs right now.

Best Book of a Musical

Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!

There are few things entertainers love more than being meta. A stacked race this years means Schmigadoon! may not get as many flowers for Best Musical, but historically, the Best Book of a Musical category often favors stage adaptations of screen projects (think Tootsie, Hairspray and The Producers), so it may well have a very big shot here.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

The Rescues, The Lost Boys

The Lost Boys boasts a slew of songs that will be stuck in your head whether or not you typically like musicals, so this one should win-though Schmigadoon! may once more win over voters thanks to its meta nature.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Chloe Lamford, Death of a Salesman

It's stark and dark, making it right on theme.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys

It's spooky, it's sexy, it's smoky, it's a bit punk and it's hella atmospheric.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels

The stunning gowns alone make this a lock.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

The colors, the patterns-divine.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Heather Gilbert, Bug

While the Carrie Coon-led production hasn't gotten nearly the attention it deserves, some should go to Heather Gilbert-also nominated in the same category for The Fear of 13-for Bug. She nails the seedy vibe of the motel room in which the show is entirely set.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Lighting a stage musical in which half the cast can only come out at night? That takes skill!

Best Sound Design of a Play

Josh Schmidt, Bug

Like Gilbert's lighting design, Josh Schmidtshould take home a trophy for the underrated Bug, which he made sound very deliberately eerie and unsettling.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys

The Lost Boys feels simultaneously like a musical and a concert, and it's all the more enjoyable for it.

Best Choreography

Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

The re-imagining of Cats as a celebration of ball culture is revelatory.

See the above photo. Like, seriously!

Best Orchestrations

Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!

It's a crowded field this year, but Schmigadoon!'s stately closer-a medley of parodies in a parody-makes it the likely winner.

This story was originally published June 6, 2026 at 6:11 AM.