Jackson Merrill's Three-Year Decline Is Not a Slump. It's a Pattern.

Jackson Merrill Is Hitting .202. But He's Not Done.

Padres fans are starting to use the word "done" in association with Jackson Merrill. I get it. He is hitting .202 and his wRC+ right now is 71: a number that belongs to a backup catcher having a rough July, not the player who finished ninth in MVP voting two years ago. Many of his stats show a clear three-year decline. But this year isn't yet half over, so, again I ask that you hear me out.

The data says something almost nobody is saying out loud, and it is the opposite of done.

Merrill's expected weighted on-base average sits at .316 right now. His actual weighted on-base average sits at .268. That is a 49-point gap between what should be happening and what is happening, and it is the widest gap of his three-year career by a wide margin. When I see a number like that, I do not reach for the word decline. I reach for the word luck, and then I go check the work to make sure I am not lying to myself.

The Three-Year Line Everybody Is Reading Wrong

Here is the part of this story that is true and the part the panic is built on. Merrill's wRC plus has gone from 130 as a rookie, to 116 in year two, to 71 right now. His expected weighted on-base average has also declined every year, from .375 to .347 to .316. Read those two sentences back to back and you get a tidy little narrative: rookie phenom in decline, three years running, time to move on. The narrative looks tidy because it is incomplete.

A real skill decline shows up the same way in both numbers. The actual production falls, and the expected production falls right alongside it, because the underlying contact quality is actually getting worse. That is not what is happening here. The expected number fell by about six percent year over year from 2024 to 2026. The actual number fell by almost half. Those two rates of decline do not match and the gap between them is the story, not the decline itself.

Look at that BABIP column. Merrill ran a .318 and a .312 his first two years, both perfectly normal for a fast line drive hitter with his sprint speed. This year it is .251. Nothing in his underlying batted ball profile supports a 60 point collapse like that. Balls he has been hitting at the same expected quality as 2024 and 2025 are finding gloves instead of grass, and the gap between his wOBA and his xwOBA is the receipt.

Why I Am Not Just Waving the BABIP Wand and Walking Away

I want to be straight with you about what this is and is not. This is not a column that says ignore the strikeouts and everything is fine. Merrill's strikeout rate has climbed every year too, from 17 percent as a rookie to 22 percent last year to just over 24 percent now. That is a real trend and it deserves a sentence of respect. Pitchers have figured out he is a swing-happy hitter and they are living on the edges of the zone against him, and the swing-and-miss has ticked up against fastballs specifically, the same pitch he used to treat like batting practice.

But a rising strikeout rate moving from 17 to 24 percent over three seasons does not produce a wRC plus that falls from 130 to 71 on its own. That kind of K rate climb costs you some points of average and some power. It does not cost you 59 points of wRC plus by itself. Something else is doing most of that work, and the something else is sitting right there in the gap between his actual and expected numbers.

What the Swing Is Actually Doing

The strikeout rate climb has a real mechanical root, and it is worth naming because it is the legitimate part of this story. Merrill has gotten more pull-happy and more lift-happy against four-seam fastballs specifically, the pitch he used to crush in both of his first two seasons. His attack angle against the fastball is the highest of his career, and his point of contact has crept earlier out in front of the plate. That is the profile of a hitter trying to do a little more than his swing is built for, and it shows up as empty swings against a pitch he should not be missing.

That is a fixable approach issue, not a body breaking down. He is 23. His bat speed is up from last year, not down. His sprint speed is up. The physical tools have not eroded even a little. What has changed is a swing decision against one specific pitch type, layered on top of a batted ball luck collapse that is doing most of the actual damage to the box score.

The Fantasy Call: This Is a Buy Window, Not a Sell Window

If you are rostering Merrill and you are tempted to dump him for whatever you can get because the batting average is sitting at .202 and the name has gone toxic in your league chat, I would ask you to hold that thought. A 49-point gap between expected and actual production on a 23-year-old with rising bat speed and unchanged sprint speed is close to the textbook definition of a buy-low candidate, not a sell-high one.

The managers in your league who only look at batting average and counting stats are the ones who think Merrill is cooked. That gap between perception and the underlying data is exactly the kind of thing you want to exploit while it still exists, either by holding through it yourself or by going and getting him from someone who has decided 23 is too old to bounce back from a bad six weeks. The strikeout rate climb is the one piece of this you should keep an eye on the rest of the season, because if it keeps climbing past 24 percent it starts eating into the power even once the BABIP normalizes. But betting against a 49-point xwOBA to wOBA gap on a player this young is usually a bet against the math, and the math tends to win that fight.

Questions About Jackson Merrill, Answered

Is Jackson Merrill's 2026 decline real or is it bad luck?

It is mostly bad luck. His expected weighted on-base average of .316 is 49 points higher than his actual .268, the widest gap of his three-year career, and his BABIP has collapsed to .251 from a career mark above .310 with no batted ball profile change severe enough to explain it.

Should I trade Jackson Merrill in fantasy baseball right now?

Only if you are selling low to a manager who is overpaying out of panic, which you should not expect. The data points toward buying or holding, since a 49-point xwOBA to wOBA gap on a 23-year-old with rising bat speed is a buy-low signal, not a reason to cash out.

What is actually wrong with Jackson Merrill's swing in 2026?

He has gotten more pull and lift oriented against four-seam fastballs specifically, with a career-high attack angle and an earlier point of contact, which has produced more empty swings against a pitch he used to dominate.

Is Jackson Merrill's strikeout rate a long-term concern?

It is worth tracking since it has climbed in each of his three seasons, from 17 percent to 22 percent to just over 24 percent, but the increase is too gradual to explain a wRC plus collapse from 130 to 71 on its own.

Is Jackson Merrill too old to bounce back from a slow start?

No. He turns 24 in April of next year, his bat speed and sprint speed are both up from last season, and nothing in his physical profile suggests decline, which is part of why the batted ball luck explanation fits better than a skill collapse explanation.

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This story was originally published June 20, 2026 at 7:31 AM.