Map Shows Worst Hit States Amid Warning $3 Gas May Not Come Back Until 2028

Thursday will mark three months since the U.S.-Israeli strikes kicked off the war in Iran, and drivers across the country continue to grapple with rising fuel costs and the threat of economy-wide price increases.

Researchers at Brown University estimate that the total "consumer burden" from rising gas and diesel prices has grown to nearly $50 billion since February 28. And others say that the downstream impacts-some of which were revealed in the Department of Labor's most recent inflation report-could result in a yearslong drain on Americans' personal finances.

The administration has said that such strains will be short-lived and are a reasonable pay-off to mitigate any Iranian nuclear threat, and believes prices will swiftly return to pre-war levels once "Operation Epic Fury" is concluded.

On Wednesday, however, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan predicted that it oil prices may not fall below $70 per barrel until 2028, delaying any meaningful relief in gas prices for U.S. drivers.

Which States Have Been Worst Hit By Rising Gas Prices

According to GasBuddy, the national average price for regular unleaded currently sits at $4.45 per gallon as of Wednesday. This marks a slight drop compared to last week, though prices are still up around 50 percent since the beginning of the conflict.

Brown University's Watson School of International and Public Affairs finds that this increase has resulted in a roughly $27 billion hit to the U.S. consumer, currently equal to around $206 per household. Alongside $21 billion in added diesel costs, this per-household estimate rises to roughly $370.

Researchers found that rising gas prices have had the greatest impact on residents of Alabama ($302.98), followed by those in Wyoming ($290.45) and Utah ($289.51).

This figure drops to as low as $121.24 in New York, but all regions have experienced a sizeable hike in expenses since February 28.

Knock-on Effect of Higher Crude Prices

And rising energy costs appear to have fed into other parts of the economy, with last month's consumer price index (CPI) finding that inflation had reached its fastest pace since May 2023 and across either of Donald Trump's terms.

"The direct changes at the fuel pump speak for themselves," said economist Steven Durlauf, a professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy. "But these changes in the price of gas and diesel fuel affect many other prices."

Durlauf noted how rising transportation expenses can impact retail food prices, which are also under longer-term pressure from the amount of fertilizer that is currently unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

"More generally, the modern economy is a complex interconnected system,” he told Newsweek. “Direct changes in input prices raise production costs that ripple through the system.”

When Are Gas Prices Going to Fall?

Prices inched lower last week, with oil dropping to under $100 a barrel on hopes that Tehran and Washington were close to an agreement that could reopen the Hormuz Strait.

A recent re-escalation in hostilities has weakened faith in an imminent resolution, but the White House is confident that, whenever this occurs, both oil and gas will rapidly drop to prewar levels.

Speaking to Fox Business on Tuesday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett argued that the release of a supply backlog from the region would mean energy prices "are going to plummet like nothing you've ever seen before."

"There's so much oil sitting in the Gulf, there's so much excess capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, that prices should drop very, very quickly."

However, others are more sceptical.

Clearing the Hormuz Backlog Will Take Time

"There are good reasons to believe that, even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, prices will remain high," Durlauf told Newsweek. "Uncertainty about future oil supply will cause higher prices even if tankers start moving.”

He added that it will take "some time" for the Strait to be cleared of mines and for damage to the region's facilities to be repaired.

De Haan said that, should the current détente between the U.S. and Iran fail to give way to a settlement, "this could quickly push oil and wholesale prices right back up."

And others are warning that prolonged conflict could mean lasting disruption for global energy markets.

Last week, International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Fatih Birol warned that the world could enter the "red zone" in July and August if the Strait remains closed, with consumption outpacing production and forcing countries to consider emergency measures to stave off a crisis.

This came after Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, predicted that even if the Strait were to re-open, it would take months before supply chains normalized.

"Reopening routes is not the same as normalizing a market that has been deprived of about one billion barrels of oil," Nasser told Reuters.

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This story was originally published May 27, 2026 at 8:01 AM.