Americans should beware of unquestioning loyalty to political parties

Chaos and control theory can provide, perhaps surprisingly, a unique perspective on societal situations and future trends. The role of “path dependence” is one example. As has been mentioned previously, path dependence occurs when a decision path is followed, and the invested commitment to the path (lock-in) can lead to an undesirable result. This phenomenon occurs in a wide variety of areas including technological, political, and even moral.

In technology, entrepreneurs strive to ensure that their technology is the standard (locked-in) and strive to prevent others from the same. Monopolies are a manifestation of such lock in, stifling innovation and progress.

Political lock-in occurs when the system limits choices (e.g., safe seats) and when voters are intransigent, maintaining unquestioning loyalty to a party or candidate. Unfortunately, this path can lead to authoritarianism.

On the moral front, no less than the famed Christian author C.S. Lewis pointed out that one can follow a virtue to the point where it can turn into an idol, and, ultimately, a demon. Sadly, it is too often a perceived good that can lead us down a destructive path. In our single-minded commitment to the righteousness of our position, we become blind to its failings and fall prey to its damaging consequences.

Changing course becomes even more challenging once our emotions are engaged. When decisions are made with imperfect data, emotions play an out-sized role. More frighteningly, we often don’t recognize that our decisions contain an irrational element, and “rationalize” them with the same filtered information that has taken us down the wrong path in the first place. This reinforces our commitment to the path and makes admitting we have made a mistake even more difficult.

It is no accident that the term “repent” means to turn around. Only as we turn can we see the shortcomings of our current path and perhaps find a better one. Unfortunately, such realizations can come too late. Tipping points are hard to un-tip. When we build out to extremes over shaky foundations, the inevitable result is collapse.

How can this undesirable phenomenon be mitigated?

First, be clear eyed about the potential failings of the path we are on. We each have filters, however when we recognize and admit to our filters, we are less likely to allow those filters to dominate our decisions.

Second, consider alternate perspectives, even those with which you disagree. Like trusses on a bridge, decisions are stronger when interconnected and from different angles. Such strengthening can prevent us from falling into false choices and single point failures.

Finally, acknowledge uncertainty and be willing to change. Most engineers realize that uncertainties are inherent in their designs and will add an engineering factor to address unknowns. This allows changes as a situation is better understood. Being unwilling to change, such as through stubbornness, arrogance, or willful blindness, is, frankly, foolish. Changing one’s mind in the light of better information shows both strength and wisdom.

Regrettably the term “repent” has a particular connotation, especially for those who most often apply it to others. We each take paths that lead to errors of judgment and mistaken decisions, but “digging a deeper hole” doesn’t help. We must recognize our filters, acknowledge other perspectives, and admit to uncertainty if we are to avoid a destructive path. When we are sure we are totally right, we probably aren’t.