Republicans Chances of Beating Jocelyn Benson to Flip Michigan-Poll

Democrat Jocelyn Benson has opened a decisive five-point lead over Republican John James in Michigan’s gubernatorial race, according to new polling that reflects a dramatic consolidation of Democratic support and mounting headwinds for Republicans heading into November.

The Glengariff Group poll, conducted May 3-11 among 600 likely general election voters, shows Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, at 34.2 percent to James’s 29.2 percent. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

The result marks a significant shift from a late-January survey showing the two candidates locked in a dead heat. Benson’s support has surged 6.2 percentage points since February, while James’s numbers remain virtually flat, signaling a consolidation of the Democratic base around the sitting secretary of state as the general election approaches.

“These numbers represent a major shift from a survey conducted in late January 2026 which had [Mike] Duggan, Benson and James tied within the margin of error among likely voters,” according to the poll’s analysis.

Duggan’s Candidacy Fractures Republican Vote More Than Democratic

The race becomes more complicated with independent candidate Mike Duggan on the ballot. Duggan, the former mayor of Detroit, is drawing 23 percent support overall. But crucially, he is bleeding more Republican votes than Democratic ones, taking 24.3 percent of GOP voters compared to just 16.3 percent of Democratic voters.

That dynamic suggests Duggan, despite his relative strength, may be doing more damage to James’s prospects than to Benson’s. In February polling, Duggan captured nearly equal support from both parties, with 22.8 percent of Republicans and 29.8 percent of Democrats backing him. The latest numbers mark a noticeable shift in his coalition, pointing to a reordering of the race dynamics.

The divide is also visible across gender lines. Among women voters, Benson leads James by 16.3 percentage points, 43.3 percent to 27 percent. Among men, however, James holds a narrower edge of 7.9 points, 31.7 percent to 23.8 percent. Duggan runs stronger among men at 29.5 percent compared to 17.2 percent among women.

Much of Benson’s recent growth appears tied to gains among leaning Democrats. In February, Benson held just 36.7 percent support among Democrats who lean toward the party but are not strong partisans. In May, that number jumped to 63.8 percent, a gain of 27.1 percentage points. Over the same period, Duggan’s support among leaning Democrats collapsed from 49 percent to 17 percent.

“The numbers have shifted specifically as Benson has consolidated Strong Democratic and particularly Leaning Democratic support,” the poll states.

Among strong Democrats, Benson increased her share from 70.3 percent to 75.9 percent while Duggan fell from 25 percent to 16.1 percent.

Trump’s Declining Approval Reshapes Michigan Battleground

The gubernatorial dynamics are unfolding against the backdrop of deep opposition to President Donald Trump in the state. Trump’s job approval stands at just 37.1 percent, with 56.8 percent disapproving, a notable decline from May 2025, when approval was 44.2 percent and disapproval was 49.2 percent.

That erosion is especially pronounced among independent voters. Independent disapproval of Trump has reached 64.6 percent, while approval stands at just 21.9 percent, a stark three-to-one margin. One year earlier, independents approved of Trump 39.5 percent to 45.6 percent disapproving.

Even within the Republican coalition, there are signs of weakness. Among Republicans under age 40, 27.7 percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance, suggesting generational fault lines within the party.

At the same time, Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who is unable to run again due to term limits, maintains a 52.2 percent approval rating and a 39 percent disapproval rating statewide. Her approval has remained stable across the survey period, giving Democrats what analysts view as a favorable political environment heading into the race.

The poll also tested an alternative Republican matchup. In a head-to-head contest between Benson and Republican Perry Johnson, Benson leads 34 percent to 26 percent, with Duggan at 23.3 percent and 15.3 percent undecided.

The governor’s race is unfolding within Michigan’s broader status as one of the country’s premier battleground states. Democrats have won statewide elections there in recent cycles, though Michigan remains highly competitive at the presidential level and is often viewed as a barometer of political sentiment across the upper Midwest.

Still, a sizable share of the electorate remains up for grabs. Undecided voters account for 12.5 percent of the electorate, representing a potentially decisive bloc in a competitive general election. Among definite voters, Benson’s lead widens slightly to 35.5 percent, up from James’s 29.5 percent.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 13, 2026 at 10:18 AM.