Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2008

Live blogging primary election day and night

It’s primary election day and the beginning of what’ll be a very long thread here on the blog today, tonight, and likely into tomorrow morning.

I’ll start posting updates as soon as I get in the office around 9 or so. I’ll take you through my election day routines and will write about races I’m most interested in following tonight.

But here’s the deal. I’d like to make this an ongoing discussion if possible as we’ll have 11 hours plus to wait before numbers start trickling in after 8 p.m. I’d like to read your reactions and hear about what races you’re most interested in seeing results for tonight, too. And you can do that in the comment section at the bottom of this post.

Now, I’m the last guy in the world who’s down with crowd participation activities. Kind of a stiff that way.

But commenting here is an anonymous activity and it’s easy to register with our website if you haven’t yet (what’s one more password?).

So here’s my plea. Don’t leave me hangin’.

As an incentive, I’m offering 200 points to each reader who can accurately predict who will be in tenth (last) place in the governor’s race as of midnight.

You know about Chris Gregoire and Dino Rossi. Other candidates are the Reform Party’s Will Baker, Republicans John Aiken and Javier Lopez, Democrat Christian Pierre Joubert, the Green Party’s Duff Badgley, Christopher Tudor (no party preference), Mohammad Hasan Said (no party preference) and independent James White.

And if we get a good turnout I think I’ll keep a running scoreboard for those who correctly answer my lame queries. Karinna is the only reader on the board so far with 100 points.

So settle in and join in, won’t you?

9:32 a.m. UPDATE: I just got in the office a few minutes ago and put the day's first pot of coffee on. Good thing I just filled the coffee can yesterday.

There's lots to get to but before I do I need to slam that first cuppajoe and get my bearings on all that I've got to do today.

But I'll just say at the outset that it's a bit exciting to come into work today. We're going to learn some things tonight. Races will crystalize. Some candidates are going to have their hearts broken. Others are going to surprise us.

This oughtta be good.

10:20 UPDATE: It didn’t take long to get tripped up with unexpected chores. I’ve just reverse published a new post about Gregoire’s appearance on KING TV’s Up Front program on Sunday. She was asked about her role in the failed recruitment of the Areva uranium enrichment plant to Richland and that produced a good two-minute exchange.

I reverse published the post so that this post remains in pole position on the blog. I’ll probably reverse publish another post or two today as well.

10:31 UPDATE: Besides maintaining this blog today I've got to get a pair of stories pre-written for tomorrow's paper. I'll be writing about primaries in the 4th and 5th congressional districts and legislative primaries in the 8th, 9th and 16th legislative districts.

There's just too much going on after 8 p.m. to start a story from scratch, let alone two. So needed background and placeholders for where the numbers will go need to be set up beforehand. I had hoped to have this done by noon. That won't happen. Glad I got in early.

I'll ask readers to bear with me today as I blog, especially all you English majors. I'm going to misspell some things (hopefully not names), make up words and go all George W. with my grammar. Hopefully I'll catch slip ups later. But there isn't time to comb through this like I would for a story.

10:40 UPDATE: The most watched primary race of the night figures to be what won't be much of a primary race at all. I'm, of course, referring to the governor's race where polls show the race between Rossi and Gregoire to be close.

For the past week we've heard how both campaigns are trying to get out the primary vote while at the same time tripping over each other to establish the lowest expectation.

It makes me wonder when two candidates have ever worked so hard to get out the vote for an election they'll soon be discrediting.

11:10 UPDATE: I'm hangin' here. Perhaps I shouldn't draw attention to the fact that no one's offered to hazzard a guess as to which gubernatorial candidate will come in tenth, even with 200 points at stake. I know you're reading, as traffic is doing exceptionally well this morning.

So I'm going to throw in an extra 50 points to the first person who takes a stab at it. Your guess doesn't have to be correct.

11:50 UPDATE: 50 points for aperdue! And it'll be another 200 if Duff Badgley finishes tenth, er, is the eighth runner-up, er — oh heck — last as of midnight.

You know, it's funny. At the Herald we have an Interactive Media editor named Andy Perdue, a real swell guy. It's a small world, I reckon. Anybody else wanna get in on the action?

NOON UPDATE: One of the races I'm most interested in watching tonight is in the 17th Legislative District where embattled Rep. Jim Dunn, R-Vancouver, faces a spirited primary challenge from Republican Joseph James and Democrat Tim Probst. This could spell trouble for Republicans. Dunn hasn't raised any money, no seriously, he hasn't raised any money. And after all his troubles you might think he'd be toast.

But he is the incumbent and incumbency has its advantages. And if he can somehow out-poll James in a low turnout primary Republicans will be faced with the prospect of supporting Dunn in the general or letting Democrats pick up the seat.

Remember that Dunn previously was elected to the 17th District's other House seat. I wonder when the last time a legislator was elected to and voted out of both House seats in the same legislative district?

1:21 p.m. UPDATE: Another race I'm eager to see numbers for is the state treasurer's race. No, that's not a typo. The retirement of Mike Murphy has opened it up to Republican Allan Martin and Democrats Jim McIntire and ChangMook Sohn.

What's interesting about it is that McIntire, a member of the state House, serves on the state Revenue Forecast Council, which adopts to revenue forecasts written by Sohn.

Sohn is an interesting character. For year's he's been a razor sharp economic forecaster and is widely respected. Despite the dry nature of his business, he's got a sly grin and a sense of humor.

While serving on the bi-partisan council Sohn has been subjected to sometimes leading questions from legislators seeking affirmation of their partisan point of view. McIntire, himself an economist, has lobbed a few of those questions and often has tried to match wits with Sohn, who I've never seen take the bait or be outmatched.

But it's McIntire who is the seasoned politician and has the establishment endorsements lined up. And despite an impressive fundraising performance Sohn's campaign has been a bit inaudible. That may cost him tonight.

2:23 p.m. UPDATE: Remember than 2004 Hanford cleanup initiative approved by 69 percent of Washington voters? Never mind. The state has decided against seeking a U.S. Supreme Court review of the measure, which was struck down by the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals earlier this year.

2:36 p.m. UPDATE: There isn't a primary in the race for public lands commissioner and without a third candidate to get in the way tonight's primary numbers ought to give us a real good idea about where that race stands. Democrat Peter Goldmark has made a good run at Republican incumbent Doug Sutherland thus far with a fundraising machine that has brought in well over half-million bucks.

It would be surprising to see that race anything other than pretty darn close. And it wouldn't be terribly surprising if Goldmark actually were polling slightly better than Sutherland.

3 p.m. UPDATE: With a little over five hours to go before we start to see some numbers I'm happy to report I'm in decent shape in terms of preparedness. I've got dummy versions of my two stories plotted out, each of them filling up half of their assigned lengths. That leaves room for candidate reaction and other insights to fill out the rest.

Here's what one graph in one of my dummy stories looks like.

"WHO was leading in the race for the second spot in the general election with XX,XXX votes, or XX percent. WHO was getting X,XXX votes, or XX percent, WHO was getting X,XXX votes, or XX percent and WHO was getting X,XXX votes, or XX percent."

Again, this needs to be done now to leave as little as possible for later. It'll be too late once the numbers start coming in and the phone starts ringing.

I've been trying to contact various campaigns to line up short interviews for this evening with varying success. Sometimes you just have to hope to get lucky.

3:43 p.m. UPDATE: I’ve just reverse published another post I’d been wanting to write for a while, headlined “Who last-minute voters won’t be voting for.”

Check it out here.

4:52 p.m. UPDATE: In the comments section below reader p1p1 mentions two good races that will be eagerly watched tonight. The first is Terry Bergeson's re-election campaign for superintendent of public instruction, a six-way race. Randy Dorn is her biggest threat in a race that could be decided in the primary if either get a majority.

But that could be a tall order. The four little-known challengers will soak up some of the votes and make it awfully difficult for Dorn or Bergeson to get the needed 50 percent plus one. And if they were to get it, it seems unlikely we'd know tonight that we have a winner.

The Scott White/Gerry Pollet race for an open House seat in the 46th District is a zesty affair, too. Keith Ljunghammar (identified as a "Cut Taxes Republican") also is on the ballot and will likely be eliminated tonight, so it's not as if we'll get a straight poll. It's unclear who benefits from all the "Cut Taxes Republican" votes in the liberal district.

White has more money and more establishment support. But Pollet is scrappy, as Tri-Citians are aware due to his role as a Hanford watchdog. Grassroots organizing is kind of his thing. So it'll be interesting to see what the numbers look like tonight.

5:23 p.m. UPDATE: I just reverse published yet another post, this one about a complaint the state Republican Party filed today with the Federal Elections Commission over a Democratic get out the vote mailer I wrote about yesterday.

6:12 p.m. UPDATE: Two hours to go and it seems like it's not enough. Where did the day go?

7:22 p.m. UPDATE: Reader sagegrouse has raised some good points in the comments sections today. Sorry I can't offer money, just points. Perhaps you heard about our salary freeze.

And I don't deduct points for commenting on the wrong post, though I might consider a deduction for making allegations of political favoritism when the allegation can be easily refuted simply by reading headlines of my blog posts this week (Gregoire on Areva: "I have been a champion for Tri-Cities").

7:30 p.m. UPDATE: This is your 30 minute warning. So far we have only three takers in our pick the gubernatorial loser contest. 200 points goes to all contestants who correctly pick the tenth place finisher as of midnight. All entries must be received (via the comment section below) by 8 p.m. Imagine the glory that could be yours.

8:04 p.m. UPDATE: And we’re off. No results in yet but they should start to begin their trickle in the minutes to come. You can find results here, save for local government races.

This is about the time where the Secretary of State’s website crashes. Kidding!

8:10 p.m. UPDATE: Secretary of State Sam Reed just issued this statement.

“The voters are the big winner tonight. Persistence paid off, and we were able to run the first-ever Top 2 Primary. By all accounts, it went very smoothly across the state and the voters responded with enthusiasm … and relief. This new system fits our political heritage so well. It’s exactly the way people want to vote – ‘Vote for the person, not the party.’”

8:13 p.m. UPDATE: Right out of the gates it's Gregoire 46.98 percent, Rossi 46.95 percent.

Oh, no. Not again.

8:20 p.m. UPDATE: Spokane County has put some initial numbers out and there is Democrat Judi Owens with almost 43 percent of the vote against Sen. Bob McCaslin, R-Spokane Valley. Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane, indicated to us that crossing the 40 percent threshold against such an entrenched Republican in a tough district might be enough to raise an eyebrow.

And it's Republican Matt Shea and Democrat Tim Hattenburg neck and neck for the open House seat in the 4th District, with the combined Republican vote at about 61 percent.

8:27 p.m. UPDATE: The very early returns show just how unlikely it is Bergeson or Dorn will be elected in the primary in the OSPI race. Already the four little known candidates are pulling in 30 percent of the vote. That's a pretty big number.

8:34 p.m. UPDATE: The 10th Legislative District may be home to the hottest battleground this fall. And the numbers in so far from Snohomish and Island counties show all three races there could be quite competitive. But Skagit County has yet to report.

8:38 p.m. UPDATE: Democrat Carol Moser has a solid 40 percent in the 8th Legislative District race for Shirley Hankins' seat. This is well more than the Democratic base there by six to eight points. And it stands to reason she would pick up at least a few Republican votes in the general given her history in the Tri-Cities.

At present the Republican vote is quite split with Christian conservative Brad Klippert narrowly leading Kennewick businessman Skip Novakovich. Klippert mini-reported.

8:39 p.m. UPDATE: In the beauty contest for the other 8th District seat Rep. Larry Haler is ahead of fellow Republican Rob Welch by fewer than 9 points. Both are former Richland mayors. This suggests another hot race in November.

8:43 p.m. UPDATE: A quick peek at the congressional races shows only the 8th District producing much of a race. Democrat Darcy Burner, to no one's surprise, is neck and neck with U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn, but those numbers will change quite a bit tonight.

8:47 p.m. UPDATE: Yakima County hasn't reported yet but U.S. Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Pasco, is way up on Kennewick Democrat George Fearing everywhere else. And U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Deer Park, is polling at 54 percent with all but Walla Walla County reporting. Her nearest five challengers is Democrat Mark Mays with 21 percent.

8:49 p.m. UPDATE: I see the legislative portion of the Secretary of State's website is down for the moment, or at least it is for me. So I'm going to try and sneak in a few calls.

9:07 p.m. UPDATE: A reader asks about how Klippert could be faring so well. One answer would be that all four Republicans have defined constituencies and support groups. And if the vote is split fine enough any one of them could slip through.

9:12 p.m. UPDATE: The Secretary of State's website for the legislative page is back up and, lo and behold, Rep. Jim Dunn, R-Vancouver, may be out of the money in the 17th District. Democrat Tim Probst is polling at 50 percent, upstart Republican Joseph James is polling at 32 percent and Dunn has brought in just 19 percent so far.

In the 16th Rep. Bill Grant, D-Walla Walla, is well ahead of his challengers. Dayton Republican Terry Nealey is well ahead in the race for the second spot in the general with 27 percent of the vote. But Nealey is beating Grant only in Columbia County and is losing two-to-one in Benton and Franklin counties, where he'll need to do well in the general.

9:18 p.m. UPDATE: I just talked briefly with Fearing and got Hastings' statement. Both are happy with the numbers, which show Hastings with 60.6 percent and Fearing with 34.7 percent. Explanation? Fearing believes his vote will rise as the general election brings out more Barack Obama voters in the presidential race.

9:25 p.m. UPDATE: I just talked with Terry Nealey in that 16th Legislative District race. He's counting on being able to add up all the other Republican votes and count them as his as he moves forward with a general election campaign against Grant. Again, Grant is polling at 52.7 percent with three Republicans splitting the rest.

"If you add the Republican votes together it'll be a real close race," Nealey said.

9:28 p.m. UPDATE: We talked about how primary night can yield surprises. How about Democrat Linda Thompson trailing state Rep. Larry Crouse, R-Spokane Valley, by just 9 points? Thompson hadn't even raised $10,000 as of last week. That could be trouble Republicans don't need.

9:30 p.m. UPDATE: Here's another race not on anyone's radar screen. Democrat David Spring is polling nearly even with state Rep. Glenn Anderson, R-Fall City. There's lots more ballots to count there, no doubt. But holy cow.

9:46 p.m. UPDATE: Rossi released a statement a while ago. And here's the most pertinent part.

"I’m happier having 45 percent tonight than the 34 percent we got in the 2004 primary," he said.

10:09 p.m. UPDATE: I'm struggling to keep up with posting here as I try to write my stories. I've got one filed and one to go. Generally, I see some interesting things in the legislative races and a number of surprises. Close races for Republican Sens. Don Benton of Vancouver and Joe Zarelli of Ridgefield, for instance.

Just eyeballing it I see more good things for Democrats than for Republicans. But I'll start doing the math once I get this second story filed.

10:49 p.m. UPDATE: I just filed my second story and now my attention is undivided. More in few minutes.

10:02 p.m. UPDATE: Save for Adams County, Rossi's numbers are highest in Benton and Franklin counties where both Rossi and Gregoire have been running Tri-City centric radio ads for the past week. The Republican ads have centered on Gregoire's role in the failed recruitment of the Areva uranium enrichment plant, the Gregoire ads have talked up her other accomplishments for the Tri-Cities.

Rossi is getting 65 percent of the vote in both Benton and Franklin counties (and almost 66 percent in Adams County).

11:19 p.m. UPDATE: Back to two open House seats in Republican districts in Eastern Washington that Democrats have their eye on this year. I mentioned Moser's race earlier in the 8th District. She said tonight her numbers surprised even her but that she realizes she'll have to cut into the 60 percent overall Republican vote in the primary.

"Obviously, I'll have to if I want to win in the general election," she said, noting it's not yet clear who's in and who's out on the Republican side. "Right now I think it's too early to say where my votes are going to come from."

In Yakima's 14th District Democrats might have hoped for a better showing by Vickie Ybarra in her race for an open seat. Perhaps the biggest name on the ballot there, she was getting just 32.5 percent. That's a lot of votes to have to pick up between the primary and the general.

11:32 p.m. UPDATE: One race that might not get much attention this year because it won't alter the balance of power in Olympia is Sen. Margarita Prentice's campaign in the 11th District. She is being challenged by two Democrats. Early numbers show Prentice, D-Renton, getting just 49 percent.

Put another way, more than half of voters (so far) are voting against the Senate Ways and Means chairwoman in the primary.

11:53 p.m. UPDATE: Two of the most likely legislative races expected to produce two general election candidates from the same party are not disappointing tonight. Both are races for open House seats in Seattle districts.

In the 36th District Democrat John Burbank is leading the better funded Democrat Reuven Carlyle 42 percent to 39 percent. That ought to be a real hootenanny of a general election campaign.

And in the 45th District Gerry Pollet is trailing Scott White 47 percent to 36 percent in another race among Democrats. They'll both advance to the general.

12:05 a.m. UPDATE: It's now midnight and you know what that means. Time to name the winner in our pick the loser contest in the governor's race. With 200 points on the line for picking the tenth place finisher, the winner is... nobody! Mohammad Hasan Said is in 10th place as of this writing with 1,630 votes, good for 0.21 percent. And nobody picked him, though reader aperdue thought about it.

Thanks for playing.

12:09 a.m. UPDATE: I think my work here is done. This was an awesome experiment and some of you took to it, too, judging by the traffic we got. Let's do it again sometime.

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