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Chris Mulick has worked for the Herald since 1998 and has served as the statehouse correspondent covering state government and politics since 2000. He works year-round out of the Herald's Olympia bureau on the state Capitol campus. Have a question? Send Chris an e-mail and he'll answer the best questions regularly. |
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closeDino Rossi’s Republican campaign sent out a memo Tuesday afternoon that explains why it expects to trail Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire in Tuesday’s primary.
It turns out the Moore Information poll Rossi commissioned last month that showed the two rivals tied at 45 percent also showed that Gregoire enjoyed a 51 percent to 42 percent lead among voters who have voted in the last four elections.
And with turnout in the primary predicted to be just 46 percent — Rossi believes it could be lower — those voters will have a greater effect on the outcome of the primary.
The campaign also cites past elections data suggesting Republicans have a tendency to poll poorly in the primary. Secretary of State Sam Reed suggested that last week, though he couldn’t point to data that would support that.
Rossi’s campaign also argues Gregoire’s TV advertising and union organizing will boost the governor’s numbers.
What all this does is add credibility to a claim Rossi might just make on primary night — that he is actually delighted with what might otherwise be considered lackluster numbers.
Underdog candidates for other offices are likely to make the same claim in their races, too, only it’ll sound as though they’re grasping for a floatation device on their way down by having reconstructed their expectations.
You remember when U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman proudly declared to have finished “in a three-way split decision for third place” in the 2004 New Hampshire presidential primary? Nobody caught the fever.
Rossi will be able to say a seemingly disappointing showing was not unexpected.
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