Thursday, Mar. 06, 2008

Texas voting extends the primary/caucus disconnect

Want further proof of the disconnect between political caucuses and the will of the electorate?

Take a look at Texas, which is still in the midst of counting caucus results from Tuesday. That state holds both a primary, which is used to dole out two-thirds of the state's 193 delegates, and caucuses, which determine who gets the remaining one-third of the delegates.

With the Democratic race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton still very much on the line, Texans turned out big time in both the primary and the caucuses, setting record turnouts for both.

News reports indicate an estimated 4.2 million Texans voted in the primary, while about 1.1 million turned out for the caucuses.

This isn't quite the 5-1 disproportionate turnout that Washington state saw between primary and caucuses, but it's still plenty lopsided.

The outcome of Texas' primary voting was 51 percent for Clinton vs. 48 percent for Obama. But at the caucuses, which give greater weight to urban areas, the tally as of Wednesday evening was 55 percent for Obama and 44 percent for Clinton.

Which is more representative of the electorate's will? Same state, different outcomes, and one with four times the turnout.

As noted in a Feb. 20 column here, caucuses tend to turn out the party faithful and can be more easily packed by supporters of a particular candidate. The political parties defend the process, arguing the candidate selection process should be done by those who care most about the party.

Or to put it another way, the parties don't really care who the voters want.

This election year promises all sorts of intrigue. With 12 primaries left to go and a tight race between two history-setting Democratic candidates, voters are really paying attention. They care who gets selected.

Things promise to stay interesting for the Democrats until at least after the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, but could easily continue until the August party convention. With the likelihood of the race still being close by then, talk is bubbling up about finding a way to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan.

The political parties earlier, you'll recall, decided to ignore those two primaries because the states didn't follow party rules. But now some are questioning if the parties really want to cut two key states out of helping decide this horse race. There's even talk of "do-over" primaries.

Political reporters will be happy if the brawl continues until the convention, and maybe even more so if things go into the proverbial smoke-filled rooms where party officials can wheel and deal. It will make for good news copy.

Let's just hope that at the end of this the electorate doesn't feel cheated.

Rick Larson: 582-1522; rlarson@tricityherald.com

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