Two thoughts about Sunday’s Academy Awards show.
First, there will be no surprises at the Oscars this year. I want to be wrong, but the odds favor the telecast being even more boring than usual. That kind of connects to my second point...
Do the Academy Awards matter anymore?
While I have a fair record picking winners over the last couple of decades, this year’s races are so locked that I have the potential to hit 100% in the major categories: best picture, director, actress, actor, supporting roles, animated feature and screenplays.
The only possible surprise will be if the program sticks to its scheduled three-hour length. It won’t. But that would be a nice surprise.
A couple of years ago, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences added an additional five best-picture picks to that category. I bitched about this last year and will likely continue complaining until all categories are expanded or until this one is reduced.
And better that it be reduced or changed. Doing comedy/musical and drama categories akin to the Golden Globes would be even better.
So now we have 10 best-picture picks. And like last year and the year before, it doesn’t matter. Only two of them have a real shot at a win.
One of the reasons for the additional five was to make the category a little less stuffy and to nominate films that will attract younger viewers to the broadcast. It is possible to say The Social Network, Inception and Black Swan fit the criteria.
However, even in a five-picture category all three would likely be there anyway. So the purpose is defeated.
The academy also picked Anne Hathaway and James Franco as hosts. Is this supposed to appeal to younger viewers that seem to think the MTV Movie Awards or People’s Choice Awards shows are more relevant than the Oscars?
Maybe putting a team together such as Seth Rogen and Tina Fey would work better if relating to Generation Y is important. If the Hugh Jackman hosting disaster two years ago -- or the Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin debacle of last year -- are any clue, at least Rogen and Fey could give the show more life and some real humor.
The broadcast hasn’t been fun since Ellen Degeneres hosted it three years ago. Why not bring her back? By the way, Franco is also nominated for best actor. How awkward is that?
That leads us to a bigger question. Do the Oscars matter?
Not really. Not anymore. But does the academy really care? While the telecast is for the masses, the awards are for the industry and on Sunday, the industry — at least in its own mind — will shine.
Here are my picks.
Best Picture: Just two films have a shot. The King’s Speech is a grab-a-hanky, gut-wrenching, emotional story about a reluctant king overcoming adversity. It is a marvelous, heart-warming, brilliantly acted and written piece of work. And it is the movie to beat.
The King’s Speech topped my best list last year and that of many other critics.
The only real competition it has is The Social Network. It features last year’s snappiest dialogue and is the most relevant to the academy’s younger voters. Mark Zuckerberg’s founding of Facebook is a fascinating story anchored by great performances and a terrific script.
The Black Swan, True Grit: Each has an outside chance depending on whether the vote gets fairly equally split by the the two front runners.
The list in alphabetical order:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The Kings Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The Academy will pick The King’s Speech
If they let me pick — The King’s Speech
Best Director: When the Oscar is awarded on Sunday night, the best director isn’t likely to be the director of the best movie. Oddsmakers have it as a toss-up between Tom Hooper of The King’s Speech and David Fincher for The Social Network. Personally, I think the best directing job was done by Danny Boyle for 127 Hours. It is gorgeous and even if you don’t like the movie, you will love the scenery.
And it takes tremendous skill to make the story of someone stuck for 127 hours in a hole entertaining. Boyle isn’t even on the list. That's a real travesty because his film is much better than David O. Russell’s also excellent The Fighter.
The list in alphabetical order:
Darren Aronofsky — Black Swan
David O. Russell — The Fighter
Tom Hooper — The King's Speech
David Fincher — The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen — True Grit
In the end, Hooper gets best picture and the Academy gives best director to Fincher.
If I got to choose — Tom Hooper
Actress in a Leading Role: This is the most interesting category and certainly the strongest acting is found here.
Annette Bening blew me away as a control freak, alcoholic lesbian in The Kids are All Right. Equally stunning is Michelle Williams’ emotional, rip-your-guts-out performance in Blue Valentine. Nicole Kidman was riveting — as always — in Rabbit Hole.
Too few people saw it, and too few saw Jennifer Lawrence’s excellent work in Winter’s Bone. Neither have even a remote chance.
Oddsmakers favor Natalie Portman for Black Swan. It is the only commercial flick in the bunch and one just about everyone saw. Portman won a Golden Globe and every other actress award, so it will be no surprise when she wins here.
By the way, Portman is an incredible actress whose body of work is deserving of recognition. Her acting here is not the best in the category.
The list in alphabetical order:
Annette Bening — The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman — Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence — Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman — Black Swan
Michelle Williams — Blue Valentine
The Academy says Natalie Portman
Mr. Movie’s pick — Annette Bening
Actor in a Leading Role: Just hand the Oscar to Colin Firth for The King’s Speech and skip the ceremony. It is hand’s down the best acting in the category.
Is the performance a lock? I think so. However, Firth does have serious competition from Jeff Bridges and Jesse Eisenberg. The Dude took on an Oscar-winning role made famous by the Duke and pulled it off. He’s very popular with the movie-going public and with the academy.
But Bridges got the award last year and won’t likely this year.
An ever-so-glib Eisenberg has a decent chance of upsetting Firth with his terrific turn as Facebook’s founder. He’s a great young actor who will only get better and who will get great roles as he grows in his craft. The academy may see him as having lots of time to pick up an Oscar in the future.
And Firth is just better this year anyway.
Here is the list in alphabetical order:
Javier Bardem — Biutiful
Jeff Bridges — True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg — The Social Network
Colin Firth — The King's Speech
James Franco — 127 Hours
The Academy picks Colin Firth
If they let me pick — Colin Firth
Actor in a Supporting Role: This is basically a two-person race.
Christian Bale is a brilliant actor who is finally being recognized for something deeper than Batman. Bale lost a ton of weight, thinned his hair, did the bad-teeth thing and took a huge risk with this role.
His only real competition is Geoffrey Rush as the speech therapist in The King’s Speech.
Different styles, different results. Where Bale’s role is dramatic and somewhat over the top, Rush does the little things that mostly go unnoticed. Few actors make the craft look as easy as Rush. The guy could stand still for two hours and get a nomination.
The same can’t be said for Bale.
The list in alphabetical order:
Christian Bale — The Fighter
John Hawkes — Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner — The Town
Mark Ruffalo — The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush — The King's Speech
The Academy goes for Christian Bale
If they let me pick: Geoffrey Rush
Actress in a Supporting Role: For a couple of months all you’ve heard about is Melissa Leo for The Fighter. Her co-star Amy Adams also got a nod and has been mentioned quite a bit, too.
Both women are exceptional in The Fighter, but Leo more so.
A smattering of attention has been given to Helena Bonham Carter’s as the understanding and supportive wife of a future king. Her role in The King’s Speech didn’t get the press, but it does have the glitz and the glamor and Bonham Carter is practically perfect.
Here is the list in alphabetical order:
Amy Adams — The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter — The King's Speech
Melissa Leo — The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld — True Grit
Jacki Weaver — Animal Kingdom
One last note. Hailee Steinfeld is great in True Grit but putting her in this category is total B.S. This is a starring role, and she is a main character if not the main character.
Doesn’t matter anyway. The Academy picks Melissa Leo
If they let me choose — Helena Bonham Carter
Best Animated Feature Film: Three great films. All should be on the best picture list, not just Toy Story 3.
In alphabetical order they are:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Pixar’s flick takes home the statue.
The Illusionist is the best of the three and is my pick.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Your thoughts?
