Hanford employment projected to peak in 2010

HANFORD -- The Department of Energy is predicting that employment at the Hanford nuclear reservation will peak in fiscal 2010 at about 10,800 employees and then begin a decline toward 2,100 workers by 2050, when most environmental cleanup work is completed.

The projections were requested by the Tri-City Development Council to help entities such as schools, utilities and counties with long-term planning, said Gary Petersen, TRIDEC vice president of Hanford programs.

For most communities in the nation, the closure of a plant or other complex such as a military base that's a major employer happens suddenly and the jobs disappear quickly, Petersen said. The Tri-Cities has the advantage of being able to look ahead and prepare for the loss of Hanford employment, he said.

The work force projections are the Department of Energy's best estimates, based on current work planning and other information. But plans for Hanford cleanup, particularly first-of-a-kind and technically challenging work, and the amount of money Congress appropriates annually are prone to change.

When the estimates for the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland are added to Hanford estimates, total employment in the fiscal year that ended in September was about 14,700, increasing to a projected high of 15,000 in fiscal 2010.

The total for fiscal 2011 is predicted to drop slightly to about 14,800. The annual numbers are for fiscal years that end Sept. 30 and exclude several hundred lab workers who are not based in the Tri-Cities.

After 2011, a larger drop in employment is expected, largely because $1.96 billion in federal economic stimulus money for Hanford cleanup will have been spent. The combined labor projection for the national lab and Hanford in 2012 is about 13,200 workers.

Projections for Hanford alone include about 9,000 workers in 2012; 9,500 in 2015; 8,000 in 2020; 7,900 in 2025; 6,600 in 2030; 6,300 in 2035; 5,500 in 2040; 4,200 in 2045 and 2,100 in 2050.

The long-term trend for Hanford employment is downward, but the national lab in Richland should remain an important stabilizing influence to the local economy, Petersen said. If the lab follows current trends, it should continue to grow at a steady pace.

The lab now has 4,648 employees, including several hundred who work at sites outside the Tri-Cities, and has more than 100 job openings.

Only 7 percent of the lab's research is tied to Hanford. Although 66 percent is for the Department of Energy, it's spread among DOE's national security, science, environment and energy programs. The remainder of its research is for the Department of Homeland Security and other federal agencies and for private organizations.

After the last of the stimulus money is spent at Hanford, one of the next major changes is expected to be the completion of environmental cleanup along the Columbia River by 2015. That may not have an effect on employment numbers, however, as cleanup work is shifted to central Hanford.

But after about 2015, the number of people needed for design and construction of the Waste Treatment Plant, or vitrification plant, is expected to start declining. Some, but not all, of those jobs could be offset with increased numbers of workers needed to commission and operate the vit plant and to empty waste tanks to feed waste to the plant. Employment for tank operations, including operating the vit plant, is predicted to peak in 2037.

Around 2024, work under the DOE Hanford Richland Operations Office -- which has all Hanford work other than the waste tanks and vit plant -- will begin to decline as more cleanup work is completed.

-- Annette Cary: 582-1533; acary@tricityherald.com; More Hanford news at hanfordnews.com.