Mr. Movie's Oscar picks

Hugh Jackman is the host for the annual Academy Awards? Tradition says Oscar’s show is fronted by a comedian or comedienne and not by the sexiest man alive.

Hugh Jackman?

What was the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences thinking? What happened to Ellen Degeneres? Or Billy Crystal? Or Jon Stewart? How about David Letterman again? Unlike others, I thought he was terrific. Whoppi Goldberg? Steve Martin. Hell, even Joan Rivers makes more sense than Hugh Jackman. Couldn’t they sign her?

I hear Jackman will sing and dance. Great. We all love the crap singing and dancing numbers that clog up the show. Combined with mindless ranting from the “winners” they cause the presentation to run way longer than an awards show needs to be.

Hugh Jackman. Geez.

To his credit Jackman is suave and handsome and dignified looking. A little dignity can’t hurt. Maybe the lack of comedy will shorten the program. It certainly needs something because there will be few surprises this year.

Normally the award winners aren’t that easy to predict. My prediction about my Oscar predictions is that I’m not going to miss many. In fact, I might not miss any. A serious lack of serious competition in most categories is the reason.

With that, here is how I laid out my predictions. At the end of each category is who I think the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will pick and who I think they should pick.

One last complaint—which as you will see as you read on—is over the Best Picture nominees. Last year’s best movie isn’t there. WALL-E can be found in the Best Animated Feature category but not where it deserves. Why can’t an animated movie compete with live action?

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: An original concept about a man who ages backward. He’s born old and dies a baby. Forrest Gump writer Eric Roth penned the piece and it is reminiscent of the Tom Hanks classic. Benjamin Button works until star Brad Pitt begins to really look like Brad Pitt.

Frost/Nixon: Based on a play, the film is a fast and loose interpretation of events that led up to the historic television interviews between TV personality David Frost and the then vilified ex-president Richard Nixon. It is more memorable than Frost and Nixon’s three televised programs.

Milk: Harvey Milk was the first openly gay politician to gain public office in San Francisco. Great acting, writing and director Gus Van Sant’s ability to tell a story make this homogenized version of Milk’s life a riveting movie. It isn’t—however—the cream of the crop.

The Reader: Award-winning acting by Kate Winslet and an “ah-ha” twist at the end makes The Reader noteworthy but not particularly compelling. It’s the one movie that doesn’t belong here. Oddly enough, Revolutionary Road that reunited Winslet and her Titanic co-star Leonardo DiCaprio is the better of her two films in 2008 and it was ignored.

Slumdog Millionaire: Definitely the best film in the category. It is a flashback-filled exploration of the lives of two orphans in Mumbai, India as they try to survive in unbelievable squalor. It is brilliantly written and director Danny Boyle is a genius.

The Academy will pick Slumdog Millionaire.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Slumdog Millionaire.

Best Actor

This is the toughest category of the bunch. They ought to call it a tie and give at least three of the five the award and send them home.

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor: Jenkins is one of my favorite character actors. It is wonderful to see him finally recognized. The few people that saw The Visitor loved it and his performance but with very stiff competition Jenkins doesn’t have a prayer.

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon: You know an actor is brilliant when they can make the quite unsympathetic and disagreeable personality of former President Richard Nixon likeable. It is the best work in a career filled with excellent performances.

Sean Penn, Milk: Every time I see Penn I think he gives his best performance ever and that he can’t get any better. You could argue that Penn has become his generation’s best actor. His acting as Harvey Milk may prove my point and he’s the only person in the category with a shot to upset frontrunner Mickey Rourke.

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Pitt is the only actor I know that can convince you he’s a crotchety old man and a young boy in the same body at the same time. It’s a brilliant piece of acting but not close to the best.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler: If you are Hollywood’s perennial bad boy and a man who has squandered all the good things given him, and if that bad boy must have a comeback role then this is the one. Rourke hits the year’s highest high.

The Academy will pick Mickey Rourke.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Mickey Rourke.

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married: Usually relegated to cutesy chick flicks, give Hathaway a deep script and she has chops.

Angelina Jolie, Changeling: Jolie looks fabulous in 1920s garb. The look may have more to do with her pick than acting. She’s always competent but in this role, as in her other films, Jolie’s misses that critical ingredient that makes you care.

Melissa Leo, Frozen River: This is my favorite of the category but not enough people saw this film to give Leo even a slight chance of winning. This is one of those powerful, deeply emotional but quiet performances that the Academy usually loves.

Meryl Streep, Doubt: Arguably the best actress of this era—or any other—Streep again finds herself in Oscar contention. For those who’ve forgotten just how good Streep is, the power-packed dialogue trades with co-star Philip Seymour Hoffman boggle the mind.

Kate Winslet, The Reader: The Hollywood Foreign Press thought this was a supporting role and gave Winslet one of two Golden Globes for her performance. She is brilliant here but as I mentioned earlier, was much better in Revolutionary Road.

The Academy will pick Kate Winslet.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Melissa Leo.

Best Supporting Actor

This category is the year’s weakest and the strongest. The outcome has been decided since Heath Ledger’s death In January of last year. He’s head and shoulders better than anyone including Michael Shannon who is head and shoulders better than everyone else.

Josh Brolin, Milk: Brolin’s best work last year was as George W. Bush in W. He’s solid here as the yin to Sean Penn’s yang.

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder: Another reason why this is the weakest category. Downey is always outstanding and he’s funny as hell in the film but this is not a best anything.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt: It had to be a blast trading barbs with the greatest actress of all time, Meryl Streep. He more than held his own and this is just one more outstanding performance by one of the best character actors in the biz.

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight: When actors die young people often put them on undeserved pedestals and exaggerate their skill and accomplishments. Ledger was a chameleon with the rare ability to actually become the character he played. As the Joker he ramped up the pinnacle for villainy to an entirely new level. It is the best acting of the year in any category.

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road: It’s too bad more people didn’t catch Revolutionary Road. Shannon was highly entertaining as a young man with serious mental problems but who was the only person with the wisdom to understand the—for lack of a better word—insane decisions of the main characters. Shannon is the only actor in this category other than Ledger deserving of being here.

The Academy will pick Heath Ledger.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Heath Ledger.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt: Adams is a great actress with the ability to hold her own with powerhouses Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman. She should have gotten the supporting actress Oscar for June Bug in 2005 and will someday likely take home an Oscar. But not this year.

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona: She gives a sizzling, steamy and highly emotional performance in Woody Allen’s film. Armed with Allen’s brilliant dialogue and compelling story, how could Cruz miss a nomination?

Viola Davis, Doubt: Davis is on-screen, what? Five minutes? In 1998 Dame Judith Dench won an undeserved Oscar for barely more minutes than that. The difference—Dench wasn’t the best that year. Davis is the best performance in this category this year.

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: There are five spots to fill and someone has to fill them. Henson is excellent but not memorable. She was much better in Hustle and Flow a couple of years ago.

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler: Her career was barely started when winning the Oscar in this category in 1992. It promptly hit a dead end until 2007 when Tomei won the hearts of critics with riveting work in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead. This performance is almost that good.

The Academy will pick Penelope Cruz.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Viola Davis.

Best Director

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Directing one of three films that don’t deserve the nomination, Fincher is an unusual director with the unusual skill of being able to tell unusual stories very well. He drags this film out a bit but it’s a solid piece of work.

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon: Film two in the “shouldn’t be here” category. It’s never easy to turn a play into a riveting movie. Howard manages mostly because of the brilliant work of Frank Langella as Richard Nixon.

Gus Van Sant, Milk: The only director with a shot at unseating Danny Boyle is Van Sant who—if you’ll pardon the pun—milks this material for all it’s worth.

Stephen Daldry, The Reader: The guy who brought you The Hours unveils the clues that take you to the bottom of this riveting story in awkward clumps. It is the third in the trio that don’t belong.

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire: Boyle is a master storyteller and this is a masterpiece. It will take home the best picture and Boyle gets a well-deserved Oscar.

The Academy will pick Danny Boyle.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Danny Boyle.

Best Animated Feature

Bolt: Most 3-D flicks spend all their money on effects and the plot suffers. Great chemistry between the characters and the actors voicing the characters and a fun, and sometimes really funny, story makes Bolt a good pick.

Kung-fu Panda: The Academy has to fill the category and there weren’t that many good animated features in 2008. It’s a fun film featuring excellent vocal talent.

WALL-E: The no-brainer of the category. Hand’s down this is the best and really should have been in the best picture category, too. WALL-E is also last year’s best movie.

The Academy will pick WALL-E.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick WALL-E.

Best Screenplays

Acting, directing, sets, locations, editing, sound—effects—all of that play an important part in the success of a movie. But it truly is great writing that makes a movie great. Everything starts with the written word.

Best Original Screenplay

Frozen River, Courtney Hunt: For a first screenplay this is pretty good. Hunt’s exploration of a woman’s desperate attempt to keep afloat financially and keep her family intact is riveting and probably the best screenplay of all the movies you didn’t see in this category.

Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh: His cheery tale of the cheeriest woman on the planet is fun. The writing of the gloomy-Gus driving instructor is perfection.

In Bruges, Martin McDonagh: More movies about cold-blooded mob hit men should be this deep. Great performances from Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson and Ralph Fiennes didn’t hurt.

Milk, Dustin Lance Black: Though it’s not the best in the category, Black’s excellent trip through San Francisco history and the unique life and times of Harvey Milk probably gets the Oscar.

WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon: This is the best screenplay in the category. When you can get a ton of information out of two robots using zero words, you’re good. Plus that, it’s the best original story of the year and the year’s best movie—and, as mentioned a couple of times earlier, that includes Slumdog Millionaire.

The Academy will pick Dustin Lance Black for Milk.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon for WALL-E.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth: A brilliantly written adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s short story. It’s witty, fun, and best of all, original.

Doubt, John Patrick Shanley: Shanley won a Pulitzer Prize but won’t pick up an Oscar. Leave out the heavyweight acting of the three nominated stars Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams and it’s just another pretty good art film.

Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan: Another playwright turns his play into a movie. Like Doubt, this is a good movie but how good is it without Frank Langella’s interpretation of Richard Nixon?

The Reader, David Hare: It’s not Hare’s fault that Stephen Daldry wasn’t able to adequately translate this exceptional script into the movie it deserved to be.

Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy: Back and forth through time he goes, and from television show set to a dungeon and all the while teasing you and revealing more and more about the lives of three incredibly original characters.

The Academy will pick Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire.

Mr. Movie says the Academy should pick Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire.

As for the Best Foreign Language film, I’ve only seen two of them, The Class and the favorite—and a very good movie—Israel’s Waltz with Bashir.

I’ve also only seen one of the films in the best documentary category so I can’t really pick. Man on Wire is the one and its commercial success gives it the best odds of winning.

Picking the sound, editing, art and music categories is always a crapshoot. I’m not going to try. But I do have one comment about the Best Original Song—where is Bruce Springsteen’s The Wrestler?